Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Alabama’s 1st District GOP primary is on a knife’s edge

Turning back to the high-stakes GOP primary in Alabama's 1st District, Moore leads Carl 55 percent to 45 percent, with 87 percent of the expected vote reporting. This undoubtedly makes Moore a favorite to win, but it's not over just yet. That's because 90 percent of the expected remaining votes are in Mobile County, Carl's home base. So far, Carl has carried Mobile 72 percent to 28 percent. That's been extremely helpful to him, but he'll need to win the remaining votes by an even larger margin if he wants to catch Moore: Based on the remaining votes, that same vote share would only get Carl to 48 percent (to Moore's 52 percent).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Taking stock of the presidential race

For those just joining us, here’s the scorecard in the presidential race tonight. Trump has won 12 contests thus far, while Haley has won only one (Vermont). We are still waiting for a winner to be projected in Utah and Alaska.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Abortion was key for California Senate primary voters

Now that the California Senate race has been projected, and more or less matches what we expected from pre-election polling, Schiff and Garvey will move on to the general election. Voters priorities in the state reflect its Democratic bent, giving us more hints that Schiff is well-positioned for a big lead in the general.

In polling before the primary, voters said abortion was the most important factor for their senate vote. In a late February University of California Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey, 55 percent of likely California primary voters say that being "a strong voice in defending abortion rights" is very important to their Senate vote, more than any other candidate quality tested. For voters that say they plan to vote for Schiff, Porter or Lee (the top three Democrats in the race), 84 percent say defending abortion is very important, compared to just 15 percent among those who say they plan to vote for Garvey, the leading Republican.

Other top candidate qualities in the survey include being "a strong opponent of Donald Trump" (51 percent say this is very important) and supporting tougher immigration laws (46 percent). Among the top four candidates, Lee supporters were the only group among which a majority (63 percent) said supporting an immediate cease-fire in Gaza is very important, compared to 42 percent of Porter supporters, 33 percent of Schiff supporters and 13 percent of Garvey supporters.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Checking in on DCCC-endorsed candidates

In a few races, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has endorsed a candidate ahead of the primary — a relatively rare step for the group. Most of those candidates are doing pretty well tonight. In Texas, Michelle Vallejo easily clinched the nomination for the 15th District, which is the only really competitive House seat in the state. In California, most of the DCCC's candidates don't actually have primary challengers, but one, Rudy Salas, is in a tough fight for a spot in the general election. Democrats are anxiously hoping to avoid a lockout in the 22nd District, where Salas is looking for a rematch against Republican David Valadao.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Democratic women to watch

As I mentioned earlier, 2018 was a watershed year for political ambition among Democratic women. Not only did Democratic women run in record numbers in 2018, they also outperformed Democratic men in their primaries. And in November of that cycle, female candidates were responsible for more than 60 percent of the congressional seats that flipped from red to blue. That year was a nail in the "women aren't electable" coffin.

There are a few Democratic women running tonight who are vying to do just that once again.

In southern California's 40th District, which spans parts of Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, engineer Allyson Muñiz Damikolas is hoping to face Republican incumbent Young Kim in November. Kim herself was one of the few Republican women who won in 2020 when she flipped California's 39th District by less than 5,000 votes Due to redistricting, Kim ran in the 40th District in 2022, where she won by a much larger margin. Still, this region of California is in flux demographically and politically, so it makes sense as a target for Democrats. EMILY's List is backing Muñiz Damikolas, but to advance to November, she'll need to get past fellow Democrat, retired fire Capt. Joe Kerr, first, who has been endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC.

Next, in Texas's 15th District, small business owner Michelle Vallejo is favored to advance tonight to a rematch against Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Vallejo, who has endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC, lost by nearly nine percentage points in 2022, but Democratic groups have invested more in the race this time around as a top pickup opportunity. And in California's 3rd District, wildfire specialist Jessica Morse is running to face the Republican incumbent, Rep. Kevin Kiley. Morse is endorsed by EMILY's List, but not the DCCC. She and Kiley are likely to advance out of today's top-two primary, which includes a third-party candidate.

In addition to these, there are several bluer districts with incumbent-less primaries today where Democratic women will be competitive:

- Rep. Colin Allred is running for Senate, opening his seat in Texas's 32nd District. State Rep. Julie Johnson has support from EMILY's List and seems to be one of the top two candidates in a crowded Democratic primary.

- Rep. Tony Cárdenas announced his retirement in his blue San Fernando Valley district (California's 29th). Luz Maria Rivas, who has support from EMILY's List and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, should finish in the top two today.

- Rep. Barbara Lee isn't running for reelection in California's 12th District, instead vying for the Senate. Organizer and civil rights activist Lateefah Simon is a clear front-runner. She has Lee's endorsement, as well as Gov. Newsom's, and backing from EMILY's List.

- Rep. Anna Eshoo announced her retirement after three decades in Congress, opening up California's 16th District. EMILY's List is backing former Stanford dean Julie Lythcott-Haims, but she's caught in a tight race with four other strong candidates who have her beat on the spending front.

- Rep. Katie Porter is also running for Senate instead of reelection in California's 47th District. Lawyer Joanna Weiss, who has an endorsement from EMILY's List, looks to be in a contentious race with state Sen. Dave Min to become the Democratic flagbearer this fall.

Given that Lee, Eshoo and Porter are women and not all of today's female candidates are favored to advance, today's races mainly give Democratic women a chance to maintain the progress they've made in recent cycles.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor