Based on an analysis of the vote, ABC News projects that Trump and Biden will win their presidential primaries in Arkansas. With about 7 percent of the expected vote in, Womack is holding onto his lead in the 3rd Congressional District 60 percent to 40 percent against Penzo.

—Monica Potts, 538

I'll be very interested to see, when the dust settles tonight, if the polls are more on the money in states with closed primaries, where bored (or wily) Democrats can't vote in the Republican Party primary for Haley. A lot of the exit polling data we've seen on Haley supporters and who they'll vote for in the general election, or whether they approve of Biden's job performance, makes me wonder how many of her voters are just plain old Democrats who are getting screened out of a lot of GOP primary polling. But we'd see a difference in closed primary states (to the extent we have robust polling there to make the comparison)!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Julia, I'm suspicious that the reason Trump's lead in primary polling has been somewhat exaggerated is that pollsters are not necessarily capturing some of the independents who are showing up to vote in a GOP primary. As Nate Cohn recently pointed out in The New York Times, some pollsters have filtered for likely GOP primary voters by mostly or only looking at voters who've voted in Republican primaries. But a fair number of independents, including Democratic-leaning ones, wouldn't necessarily fall in that category. But with Biden a lock to win the Democratic nomination — barring something happening outside of the voting booth — Democratic-leaning voters have only one race to get involved in. Although we know there aren't that many "cross-over" voters who participate in the opposing party's primary, some high-propensity Democratic voters and some Democratic-leaning independents have probably voted in states that allow non-Republicans to cast ballots in the GOP primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In 2016, people who said they were undecided in polls were more likely to vote for Trump as "professor polls" explains in this great 538 video I show my students. But in 2024, Trump supporters aren't so shy. It's the rest of the GOP that might be more bashful.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Voters are choosing more than their parties' presidential nominees tonight. In five Super Tuesday states, they're also deciding on candidates for statewide and local offices. Several consequential judicial elections are being held tonight, for positions on state supreme courts in Alabama, Arkansas and Texas, and on the Criminal Court of Appeals in Texas.

In Arkansas, nonpartisan general elections are being held to fill two vacancies on the Supreme Court, creating a game of musical chairs among the sitting justices that could potentially accelerate the already-conservative court's rightward shift. Chief Justice Dan Kemp is stepping down, and three of the four candidates running to replace him are already sitting on the court, while another sitting justice is angling to move to a different open seat on the court. The shuffle could leave two vacancies that would allow conservative Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders to name replacements to finish their terms.

Alabama's Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Parker, who recently made waves nationally with a ruling that frozen embryos used for IVF are children, is also retiring because of the state's mandatory retirement age. Two candidates are running for the Republican nomination to replace him: sitting Associate Justice Sarah Stewart (who had to give up her seat to run for the top slot) and former state Senator Bryan Taylor. While Stewart joined the 8-1 majority opinion in the IVF case and both candidates have defended the decision, Taylor has claimed that Stewart is the "most liberal" justice on the all-Republican court, and received a huge influx of outside spending from conservative anti-abortion group Fair Courts America. Whoever wins will likely face (and defeat) Democrat Greg Griffin>) in the general election.

In Texas, Supreme Court Justice John Devine is facing a primary challenger who has questioned his ethics, but a bigger political feud is playing out in other races. Allies of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are funding primary challengers to three Criminal Court of Appeals judges who ruled against him in a voter fraud decision, limiting his power to prosecute those cases. And as Nathaniel noted earlier, Paxton, who had been accused of abusing power to protect a political donor, has also endorsed primary challengers against 34 of the 60 Republican legislators who voted to impeach him last year.

—Monica Potts, 538