Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Alabama’s 1st District GOP primary is on a knife’s edge

Turning back to the high-stakes GOP primary in Alabama's 1st District, Moore leads Carl 55 percent to 45 percent, with 87 percent of the expected vote reporting. This undoubtedly makes Moore a favorite to win, but it's not over just yet. That's because 90 percent of the expected remaining votes are in Mobile County, Carl's home base. So far, Carl has carried Mobile 72 percent to 28 percent. That's been extremely helpful to him, but he'll need to win the remaining votes by an even larger margin if he wants to catch Moore: Based on the remaining votes, that same vote share would only get Carl to 48 percent (to Moore's 52 percent).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Taking stock of the presidential race

For those just joining us, here’s the scorecard in the presidential race tonight. Trump has won 12 contests thus far, while Haley has won only one (Vermont). We are still waiting for a winner to be projected in Utah and Alaska.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Abortion was key for California Senate primary voters

Now that the California Senate race has been projected, and more or less matches what we expected from pre-election polling, Schiff and Garvey will move on to the general election. Voters priorities in the state reflect its Democratic bent, giving us more hints that Schiff is well-positioned for a big lead in the general.

In polling before the primary, voters said abortion was the most important factor for their senate vote. In a late February University of California Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey, 55 percent of likely California primary voters say that being "a strong voice in defending abortion rights" is very important to their Senate vote, more than any other candidate quality tested. For voters that say they plan to vote for Schiff, Porter or Lee (the top three Democrats in the race), 84 percent say defending abortion is very important, compared to just 15 percent among those who say they plan to vote for Garvey, the leading Republican.

Other top candidate qualities in the survey include being "a strong opponent of Donald Trump" (51 percent say this is very important) and supporting tougher immigration laws (46 percent). Among the top four candidates, Lee supporters were the only group among which a majority (63 percent) said supporting an immediate cease-fire in Gaza is very important, compared to 42 percent of Porter supporters, 33 percent of Schiff supporters and 13 percent of Garvey supporters.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Checking in on DCCC-endorsed candidates

In a few races, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has endorsed a candidate ahead of the primary — a relatively rare step for the group. Most of those candidates are doing pretty well tonight. In Texas, Michelle Vallejo easily clinched the nomination for the 15th District, which is the only really competitive House seat in the state. In California, most of the DCCC's candidates don't actually have primary challengers, but one, Rudy Salas, is in a tough fight for a spot in the general election. Democrats are anxiously hoping to avoid a lockout in the 22nd District, where Salas is looking for a rematch against Republican David Valadao.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Final thought: Congress is the most interesting fight now

The presidential primaries are, for all intents and purposes, over. That means we can finally shift our focus to the primaries that are going to have the most impact on the outcome in November, in the House and Senate. Tonight we saw the first of those contests, and they did not disappoint. In Alabama, an appropriator, Rep. Jerry Carl, lost to a firebrand colleague, Barry Moore, in a member versus member primary. (Let's see what that does to morale in the GOP conference.) In California, Adam Schiff successfully engineered an uncompetitive general election against Republican Steve Garvey, freeing up tens of millions in small donor dollars for races elsewhere around the country. In North Carolina, a bevy of upcoming runoffs will help determine what shape the next House GOP conference takes. And in Texas, we're going to find out in the 23rd District just how much deviation from party orthodoxy is tolerated, when Tony Gonzales faces the music for his votes on a gun bill (negotiated by the state's own senior GOP senator!). Presidential season may be over, but the fun is just beginning.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections