Smith is an outspoken, MAGA-style firebrand who hasn’t managed to pull out a win in the area and would have been a more appealing (read: weaker) opponent for the freshman congressman in this swingy district. As I mentioned earlier, the 1st District has long been a Democratic stronghold — it hasn’t elected a Republican in over 140 years — but after redistricting, it was redrawn to become a tossup district, and is set to be the only real competitive Congressional race in North Carolina this fall.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In North Carolina's 1st congressional district, Buckhout is projected to win the Republican primary, according to The New York Times. We wrote about this earlier, but her win comes on the strength of national Republican Party efforts to make her the nominee over two-time candidate in the district, Sandy Smith, a candidate with a more Trumpy profile. Buckhout will take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis in November.

—Monica Potts, 538

With more than 90 percent of North Carolina's expected vote in, we can now say more about the patterns in that state. First, Trump is romping statewide, with 75 percent to Haley's 23 percent. But where is Trump doing especially well? In counties with few people with college degrees, sure. But also in counties with lower population density and more Black voters. That said, it doesn't mean Trump is doing well with Black GOP voters — preliminary data from the North Carolina exit poll suggest that in fact non-White Republican primary voters were a bit less supportive of Trump than white Republican primary voters. Instead, Trump is doing especially well in the counties with more Black residents (regardless of whether they're voting tonight or not).

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

With 81-year-old Rep. Kay Granger set to retire, the primary race to replace her in Texas's 12th District looks like it may go to the more establishment GOP candidate: state Rep. Craig Goldman, who is currently leading with 46 percent and 78 percent of expected votes in. He'll need to get 50 percent of the vote (plus one vote) to avoid a runoff with local businessman John O'Shea, a more Trumpian candidate who currently has 25 percent of the vote.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Sitting governors and attorneys general don't usually openly try to defeat incumbents of their own party, but Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton are just built different, I guess. Today's Texas primaries are the culmination of two separate intraparty power struggles from the past year, in which Abbott and Paxton are actively trying to defeat Republicans who have defied them in the state legislature.

In May 2023, the Texas state House impeached Paxton on charges of bribery and abuse of office. He was later acquitted by the state Senate, but he has embarked on a revenge tour against those who supported his impeachment by endorsing primary challengers to 35 incumbent Republicans.

Meanwhile, Abbott suffered a massive political defeat last year when a group of mostly rural Republican legislators blocked his top priority, a school voucher program. In what the Houston Chronicle has called a "legacy-defining" campaign, Abbott has spent more than $4 million trying to oust 10 anti-voucher Republicans running for reelection.

Even Trump has gotten in on the act: He has endorsed at least eight primary challengers to sitting representatives, all of whom either voted against vouchers or voted to impeach Paxton (who is a close Trump ally).

If Paxton, Abbott and Trump are successful, the Republican caucus in the Texas state House will look very different — and further right — next year. Throughout the night, I'll be watching for how many incumbents they successfully topple.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538