Most of the Republicans that emerge from the GOP primaries in North Carolina today will be men. But in the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis awaits today's outcome, which will determine if he'll face Republican MAGA-firebrand, Sandy Smith (again), or wealthy businesswoman, Laurie Buckhout. As we wrote earlier, the 1st District will likely be the state's sole competitive House race in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In the first 19 towns in Vermont with reasonably complete results, Trump's support this year correlates at around 0.60 with his support back in 2016, which is a pretty high correlation and similar to what we saw in New Hampshire. But as we've observed in other states, Trump is also doing well in the Vermont towns where Ted Cruz had more support in 2016. Since 2016, Trump has consolidated the GOP's right-leaning voters.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

We're still waiting on results in most races, but I'm also watching Oklahoma, where polls have just closed. Trump has a massive lead against Haley in recent Republican primary polling in Oklahoma, and, since the primary is closed, Haley can't count on independents and Democrats shrinking his margin against her. Trump won the state in the 2020 general election with 65 percent of the vote, making it one of his best states in the U.S., and Biden did not win a single county there.

Heavily evangelical, with a mix of Southern and Western spirit, Oklahoma remains one of the reddest states in the country. Whoever wins this primary race is almost certain to carry the state in November. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, the state's junior senator, has called on Haley to drop out if she doesn't win a single state tonight.

—Monica Potts, 538

The 2024 primary season has been weirder than I think anyone expected. The two parties feel like they have a lot of internal tension, but with a current and a former president seeking their parties' respective nominations, it hasn't been very competitive. One result of this has been that we've been looking for clues to the general — the Trump-Biden rematch — in the primary results. In turn, this has meant some overinterpretation of primary results — it's not a given that people who cast a vote for another candidate won't come home in the general.

It's also hard to compare the internal dynamics of the two parties and apply those to predictions for the general. Dean Phillips' candidacy, for example, has presented himself as a moderate, pragmatic alternative to Biden — but he's mostly emphasized the age difference. Some Democrats have been unhappy with the policies of the administration, especially on the Israel issue, but there hasn't been a progressive candidate to challenge him. Trump, on the other hand, has faced — and beaten — experienced opponents with more substantive disagreements. This makes it harder to use the primary as a direct roadmap to what the candidates' liabilities might be in the fall.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

While we don’t have data for every Super Tuesday state, in the ones we do, Haley’s favorability lags far behind Trump’s among Republican voters. In Texas, an early February poll from YouGov/The University of Texas shows GOP voters there have a particularly dim view of Haley; the survey shows Haley 4 percentage points underwater among Republicans, with a 36 percent favorability rating and a 40 percent unfavorability rating, while Trump is has a massive positive net approval rating of 71 percent (83 percent favorable and just 12 percent unfavorable).

While not quite as dismal as in Texas, Haley’s numbers in other Super Tuesday states lag far behind Trump’s. For example, a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll from mid-February in North Carolina has Haley at net +18 percent favorability (52 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable) among registered Republicans, compared to net +64 percent favorability for Trump (81 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable). An early February poll in Maine from Pan Atlantic Research shows Haley at net favorability +15 percent favorable (50 to 35 percent), compared to Trump’s net +52 percent favorability rating (76 to 24 percent).

In Vermont, polls suggest Haley might perform a little better than in other states, but her favorability is underwater, according to an early January survey from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. That survey had Trump with a lower favorable rating than he enjoys in other states, net +20 points (57 to 37 percent), but Haley had a net favorability of -9 points among likely primary voters: 32 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538