Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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That's a wrap!

Well, reader, we were determined to keep this live blog going until every Super Tuesday race had been resolved, but even we have our limits. In preparation for next week's primary live blog, we're wrapping this one up. Here's where things stand in all the races we're still tracking:

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 16th District, we're still not sure who will join Democrat Sam Liccardo in the general election. Democrat Evan Low and Democrat Joe Simitian both currently have 17 percent of the vote, and Low is just 63 votes ahead of Simitian.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is a safe bet to advance, but it's a close race for second. Democrats Derek Tran and Kim Nguyen-Penaloza are both at 16 percent, with Tran just 256 votes ahead.

- With 98 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 8th District, Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just above the 30 percent threshold he needs to avoid a runoff. The AP has gone ahead and called the primary for Harris, but ABC News has not yet reported whether Harris will win outright or be forced into a runoff.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Democratic primary for Texas's 32nd District, Julie Johnson is similarly hovering at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. While the AP has called this race for Johnson, ABC News has not yet reported whether a runoff will be needed.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


New projections in California's 20th and 31st

We've got answers on two California House races that were still outstanding! In California's 20th District, ABC News reports that Republican Mike Boudreaux will make the general election, where he will face fellow Republican Vince Fong (who was already projected to advance). It's no surprise that no Democrats made the general election here, as this is the reddest seat in California. (It used to be represented by Kevin McCarthy.)

Similarly, in California's 31st District, ABC News reports that Republican Daniel Martinez will advance to the general election, joining Democrat Gil Cisneros (who was already projected to advance). That's good news for Cisneros; since this is a solidly blue seat, he will have no trouble in the general election against Martinez, whereas he would've faced a tougher campaign against a fellow Democrat.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


No runoff after all in North Carolina's 6th

Various news organizations (including ABC News) had projected that Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker would advance to a runoff election in North Carolina's 6th District. However, that contest has now been called off. According to Spectrum News's Reuben Jones, Walker is taking a job with Trump's campaign and will not request a runoff after all. (In North Carolina, the second-place finisher has to request a runoff, it doesn't happen automatically.)

This maneuver is probably not a coincidence given that Trump endorsed McDowell in December. Regardless, it means that McDowell will be the GOP nominee here and very likely the district's next congressman, since Trump carried the 6th District by 16 points in 2020.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Some projections in California

The general-election candidates are set in one of this fall's most competitive House races. ABC News reports that in California's 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas are projected to advance to the general election, setting up a rematch of the 2022 race that Valadao won by just 3 points.

In addition, ABC News reports that Democrat Sam Liccardo and Democrat Gil Cisernos are projected to make the general election in California's 16th and 31st districts, respectively. Their general-election opponents, however, are still TBD.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


In California, it's the end of the road (or just the beginning)

In several of California's open congressional districts, tonight could be the end of any suspense about who the next representative will be. Or, it could be the start of an eight-month intraparty slog.

That's because California's unique all-party primary system — where the top two primary vote-getters advance to the general election — allows for either a traditional contest between a Democrat and a Republican or a fight between members of the same party in the general election, and it's not always obvious which one you're going to get. That's the case in at least four open-seat races today — three Democratic and one Republican.

In California's 16th District, there are nine Democrats but just two Republicans vying to replace Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo. While limited polling of the district suggests that former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo or Santa Clara Supervisor Joe Simitian, both Democrats, are the front-runners, if one of the two Republicans consolidates most of the GOP vote and the Democratic vote scatters among the many candidates, a Republican could finish in the top two. In the 2022 primary, the Republican candidates didn't meet that threshold, splitting a combined 22 percent of the vote; the four GOP candidates in the state's Senate race won a combined 24 percent in the district. A Republican advancing would ensure that whichever Democrat also finished ahead would win the general election in November, given the district's partisan bent. But if two Democrats finish in the top two, it'll be a real race.

Same goes in the 30th District, where Adam Schiff is leaving to run for Senate. Twelve Democrats and just two Republicans will appear on the ballot there. In the 2022 primary, four GOP House candidates totaled 21 percent, and Senate GOP candidates combined for a smaller 22 percent. Democratic state legislators Anthony Portantino and Laura Friedman, and Democratic former city attorney Mike Feuer are the front-runners for this seat; if two of those three make it to the general election, it will be an expensive and sharp-elbowed race to November, but if one of the Republicans squeezes in, it's basically over.

In the 31st District, where Democrat Grace Napolitano is retiring, six Democrats and two Republicans are running. In 2022, the one Republican running for the seat, Daniel Martinez, advanced to the general by winning 37 percent of the vote in the primary. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros, state Sens. Susan Rubio and Bob Archuleta, former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz and attorney Greg Hafif are all running well-funded Democratic campaigns, creating the possibility that Martinez, who is running again, could finish in the top two instead of two Democrats, effectively ending this race tonight.

And in Kevin McCarthy's old seat, the 20th District, it's a similar story with the parties reversed. There, the two Democrats will probably combine for around 30 percent of the primary vote (in 2022, the House candidates combined for 30 percent and the Senate candidates for 32 percent), while six Republicans fight over the remaining 70 percent (a seventh dropped out but remains on the ballot).

Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections