I think that's right, Galen. In a CNN poll back in January, 35 percent of voters said they either don't follow the campaign at all or only pay as much attention to it as necessary. Another 38 percent said they don't seek out campaign news, but do follow the news that they encounter. Only 26 percent of voters said they are frequently seeking out news about the campaign. At this point in the race, voters are not really tuned in. It may be that whatever happens in the primary stays in the primary.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Julia, I hear what you're saying, and as a member of "the media," I have an inkling as to why this is happening. The primary contests are not competitive and we have to talk about about ... something ... anything!

To echo what you're saying, just 22 percent of the registered voters in Michigan cast a ballot in the primary last week. In 2020, voter turnout exceeded 70 percent in the general. These are just wildly different electorates.

I often feel flummoxed by comparisons of the midterms to the general, and in the midterms turnout is closer to 50 percent. A general electorate is far less engaged in politics and is — according to polls — more driven by economic issues. And frankly, a big chunk of them find both Biden and Trump unappealing.

So, while I do think there are interesting things to say about the primary, they are not the kind of things that will tell you who will win in November.

—Galen Druke, 538

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is aligned with the Republican House leadership, has spent several hundred thousand dollars to prevent Sandy Smith from winning that primary again. CLF also spent (unsuccessfully) against Smith in the 2022 primary after several damaging stories about her came out.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Not only did she drop more than $1 million of her own money into her campaign, she lives in a fancy, columned, waterfront manor in ritzy Edenton, with its own boat dock and putting green!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In several of California's open congressional districts, tonight could be the end of any suspense about who the next representative will be. Or, it could be the start of an eight-month intraparty slog.

That's because California's unique all-party primary system — where the top two primary vote-getters advance to the general election — allows for either a traditional contest between a Democrat and a Republican or a fight between members of the same party in the general election, and it's not always obvious which one you're going to get. That's the case in at least four open-seat races today — three Democratic and one Republican.

In California's 16th District, there are nine Democrats but just two Republicans vying to replace Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo. While limited polling of the district suggests that former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo or Santa Clara Supervisor Joe Simitian, both Democrats, are the front-runners, if one of the two Republicans consolidates most of the GOP vote and the Democratic vote scatters among the many candidates, a Republican could finish in the top two. In the 2022 primary, the Republican candidates didn't meet that threshold, splitting a combined 22 percent of the vote; the four GOP candidates in the state's Senate race won a combined 24 percent in the district. A Republican advancing would ensure that whichever Democrat also finished ahead would win the general election in November, given the district's partisan bent. But if two Democrats finish in the top two, it'll be a real race.

Same goes in the 30th District, where Adam Schiff is leaving to run for Senate. Twelve Democrats and just two Republicans will appear on the ballot there. In the 2022 primary, four GOP House candidates totaled 21 percent, and Senate GOP candidates combined for a smaller 22 percent. Democratic state legislators Anthony Portantino and Laura Friedman, and Democratic former city attorney Mike Feuer are the front-runners for this seat; if two of those three make it to the general election, it will be an expensive and sharp-elbowed race to November, but if one of the Republicans squeezes in, it's basically over.

In the 31st District, where Democrat Grace Napolitano is retiring, six Democrats and two Republicans are running. In 2022, the one Republican running for the seat, Daniel Martinez, advanced to the general by winning 37 percent of the vote in the primary. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros, state Sens. Susan Rubio and Bob Archuleta, former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz and attorney Greg Hafif are all running well-funded Democratic campaigns, creating the possibility that Martinez, who is running again, could finish in the top two instead of two Democrats, effectively ending this race tonight.

And in Kevin McCarthy's old seat, the 20th District, it's a similar story with the parties reversed. There, the two Democrats will probably combine for around 30 percent of the primary vote (in 2022, the House candidates combined for 30 percent and the Senate candidates for 32 percent), while six Republicans fight over the remaining 70 percent (a seventh dropped out but remains on the ballot).

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections