Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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More runoffs projected in Texas, North Carolina

Catching up on some ABC News race projections that we missed earlier:

- In the Republican primary for North Carolina's 13th District, ABC News projects that Kelly Daughtry and Brad Knott will advance to a May 14 runoff. This is currently a Democratic-held seat, but the GOP legislature redrew it to be safely Republican, so whoever wins the runoff should be a shoo-in in November.

- In the Republican primary for Texas's 12th District, ABC News projects that Craig Goldman and John O'Shea will advance to a May 28 runoff. This is a solidly red open seat currently represented by retiring Rep. Kay Granger.

- And a bit of a surprise in the Republican primary for Texas's 23rd District: incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales garnered just 45 percent of the vote, forcing him into a runoff with second-place finisher Brandon Herrera. Gonzales was censured by the Texas GOP last year for supporting bipartisan gun legislation in the wake of the shooting in Uvalde, which is in his district. Clearly, the GOP base is still not happy with him.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Several incumbents ousted in the Texas state House

As we explained yesterday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Trump all set out to defeat several incumbent Republicans in the Texas state House yesterday (albeit for different reasons). The Associated Press has now projected winners in most of those races, and here's how they turned out: In total, at least eight Republican incumbents lost their primaries after being targeted by one of those three men. Another seven, including Speaker Dade Phelan, were forced into runoffs.

Abbott's muscle looks like it was the most effective: Five of the 10 incumbents he targeted (over their opposition to his school-voucher plan) lost, and another three went to runoffs. Trump also did OK: Two of the eight incumbents he targeted lost, and three more went to runoffs. Paxton didn't have as high of a success rate: Only seven of the 35 incumbents he targeted lost, although seven more were forced into runoffs. That's maybe not too surprising, though, since unlike Abbott, Paxton didn't put a ton of money where his mouth was.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Dean Phillips suspends his campaign, endorses Biden

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips ended his campaign for president today and endorsed Biden's reelection campaign. Phillips got into the race last fall, citing Democratic worries about Biden's age and ability to beat Trump. But his campaign never took off, even in New Hampshire, where he focused much of his efforts because Biden wasn't on the ballot due to the state's primary having violated the national Democrats' new calendar rules. Phillips won 20 percent of the New Hampshire vote, but he didn't clear 10 percent in any other state where he got on the ballot. Yesterday, he earned 8 percent in his home state of Minnesota and 9 percent in Oklahoma, his best showings otherwise.

Although some Democrats share Phillips's concerns about Biden, Phillips predictably struggled because the incumbent president remains relatively well-liked by those in his party. Phillips was an unusual primary challenger in that he didn't have sizable ideological disagreements with Biden that stoked his run — the moderate congressman was not from the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, for instance. And Phillips's overall performance reflects the lack of appetite for a center-left alternative to Biden — who hails from that part of the party — or at least one who didn't already have a sizable standing. Rather, the intraparty dissatisfaction with Biden has been felt more on the left, which has been especially critical of Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza situation. (See: the "Uncommitted" protest movement getting more votes than Phillips in his home state.) Tellingly, Marianne Williamson's minor left-wing campaign has actually won more votes than Phillips in 10 of the 15 primaries they both participated in.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


All incumbent Republicans lose in the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals primaries

As Nathaniel mentioned yesterday, in 2022, eight Republican judges on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals ruled that the attorney general cannot prosecute election-related cases without the participation or permission of a local prosecutor, a decision that upset Attorney General Paxton, Trump, and Gov. Abbott. Last night, three of those incumbents were up for reelection, and all three faced primary challengers endorsed by Paxton, Trump and Abbott. According to the Associated Press, with over 95 percent of the expected vote reported, all three appear to have lost to their primary challengers: Presiding Judge Sharon Keller is losing 37 percent to 63 percent to appellate lawyer David Schenck, Judge Barbara Parker Hervey is losing 34 to 66 percent to former Assistant District Attorney and businesswoman Gina Parker, and Judge Michelle Slaughter is losing 46 to 54 percent to criminal lawyer Lee Finley.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


In California, it's the end of the road (or just the beginning)

In several of California's open congressional districts, tonight could be the end of any suspense about who the next representative will be. Or, it could be the start of an eight-month intraparty slog.

That's because California's unique all-party primary system — where the top two primary vote-getters advance to the general election — allows for either a traditional contest between a Democrat and a Republican or a fight between members of the same party in the general election, and it's not always obvious which one you're going to get. That's the case in at least four open-seat races today — three Democratic and one Republican.

In California's 16th District, there are nine Democrats but just two Republicans vying to replace Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo. While limited polling of the district suggests that former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo or Santa Clara Supervisor Joe Simitian, both Democrats, are the front-runners, if one of the two Republicans consolidates most of the GOP vote and the Democratic vote scatters among the many candidates, a Republican could finish in the top two. In the 2022 primary, the Republican candidates didn't meet that threshold, splitting a combined 22 percent of the vote; the four GOP candidates in the state's Senate race won a combined 24 percent in the district. A Republican advancing would ensure that whichever Democrat also finished ahead would win the general election in November, given the district's partisan bent. But if two Democrats finish in the top two, it'll be a real race.

Same goes in the 30th District, where Adam Schiff is leaving to run for Senate. Twelve Democrats and just two Republicans will appear on the ballot there. In the 2022 primary, four GOP House candidates totaled 21 percent, and Senate GOP candidates combined for a smaller 22 percent. Democratic state legislators Anthony Portantino and Laura Friedman, and Democratic former city attorney Mike Feuer are the front-runners for this seat; if two of those three make it to the general election, it will be an expensive and sharp-elbowed race to November, but if one of the Republicans squeezes in, it's basically over.

In the 31st District, where Democrat Grace Napolitano is retiring, six Democrats and two Republicans are running. In 2022, the one Republican running for the seat, Daniel Martinez, advanced to the general by winning 37 percent of the vote in the primary. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros, state Sens. Susan Rubio and Bob Archuleta, former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz and attorney Greg Hafif are all running well-funded Democratic campaigns, creating the possibility that Martinez, who is running again, could finish in the top two instead of two Democrats, effectively ending this race tonight.

And in Kevin McCarthy's old seat, the 20th District, it's a similar story with the parties reversed. There, the two Democrats will probably combine for around 30 percent of the primary vote (in 2022, the House candidates combined for 30 percent and the Senate candidates for 32 percent), while six Republicans fight over the remaining 70 percent (a seventh dropped out but remains on the ballot).

Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections