Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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More 2024 weirdness: The post-14th Amendment primary

Yesterday, the Supreme Court rejected the legal arguments claiming that Trump could be disqualified from running for president in 2024 because of his connection to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states that anyone who held a public or constitutional office and has engaged in insurrection is ineligible to hold office in the future, unless Congress passes a law stating otherwise. Section 5 says that Congress can also pass laws to enforce any of the provisions in the amendment. Lawsuits in several states came forward to disqualify Trump on these grounds.

But until recently, very few people had given much thought to this part of the 14th amendment since the years immediately following the Civil War. Legal scholars brought up a couple of ambiguities — did it apply to the presidency, since a number of offices are named, but not the president? Do we have an agreed upon definition of what counts as participating in an insurrection and whether Trump did that in 2021? (Spoiler alert: No.)

The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the state of Colorado could not disqualify Trump, though there were disagreements about how far to take that ruling. A majority held that Congress would need to pass a law in order to enforce Section 3. Though the unanimity of the ruling papered over some of the partisan politics, the timing was impossible to separate from political considerations, since it came just in time for today’s big round of contests.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor


North Carolina’s state House speaker is probably going to Congress

ABC News can project that Tim Moore has won the GOP primary for North Carolina’s 14th District. Moore is the speaker of the state House and played a role in redrawing North Carolina’s congressional map this cycle to give Republicans three new safe seats — including one that included Moore’s home base. Unsurprisingly, he jumped into the race and faced only nominal opposition in the primary, and he should easily win the general election as well in this Trump +16 district.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Some updates from North Carolina

Some of those races to watch in North Carolina are still cooking, and I have a hunch we may end up in runoff territory for a couple. In the 1st District's GOP primary, Laurie Buckhout is edging ahead of Sandy Smith by 4 percentage points, with 34 percent of the votes in.

In the 6th District Republican primary, it's an incredibly close three-way tie right now between Trump-endorsed political newbie Addison McDowell, former Green Beret Christian Castelli, and former Rep. Mark Walker, who represented the district from 2015-2021 before making an unsuccessful bid for the Senate. Bo Hines, a former wide receiver for North Carolina State University who ran unsuccessfully in 2022, is trailing the other three. This race will determine the winner in November — there are no Democrats bothering to run in the 6th, since it was redrawn to be much redder.

And in the deep-red 8th District outside Charlotte, redemption-seeking former nominee Mark Harris, whose 2018 congressional win was thrown out due to allegations of ballot fraud, is just barely leading Allan Baucom, a farmer and former chairman of the Union County Board of Commissioners. State Rep. John Bradford, who has poured $1.3 million of his own money into his campaign, is trailing with 81 percent of votes in.

Remember that in North Carolina, if no candidate gets 30 percent or more of the vote today, races will go to a two-candidate runoff in May.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Speaking of Trump endorsements …

The former president's scorecard for endorsees is looking pretty good at the moment. Out of six candidates whom Trump endorsed, three have won their primaries (Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor, Mayra Flores for Texas's 34th District and Tim Moore in North Carolina's 14th District) and two are leading (McDowell, who I just mentioned, and Brandon Gill in Texas's 26th District). We'll have to wait for the polls to close in California to see if Trump is heading for a perfect score.

Kaleigh Rogers, 538


In California, it's the end of the road (or just the beginning)

In several of California's open congressional districts, tonight could be the end of any suspense about who the next representative will be. Or, it could be the start of an eight-month intraparty slog.

That's because California's unique all-party primary system — where the top two primary vote-getters advance to the general election — allows for either a traditional contest between a Democrat and a Republican or a fight between members of the same party in the general election, and it's not always obvious which one you're going to get. That's the case in at least four open-seat races today — three Democratic and one Republican.

In California's 16th District, there are nine Democrats but just two Republicans vying to replace Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo. While limited polling of the district suggests that former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo or Santa Clara Supervisor Joe Simitian, both Democrats, are the front-runners, if one of the two Republicans consolidates most of the GOP vote and the Democratic vote scatters among the many candidates, a Republican could finish in the top two. In the 2022 primary, the Republican candidates didn't meet that threshold, splitting a combined 22 percent of the vote; the four GOP candidates in the state's Senate race won a combined 24 percent in the district. A Republican advancing would ensure that whichever Democrat also finished ahead would win the general election in November, given the district's partisan bent. But if two Democrats finish in the top two, it'll be a real race.

Same goes in the 30th District, where Adam Schiff is leaving to run for Senate. Twelve Democrats and just two Republicans will appear on the ballot there. In the 2022 primary, four GOP House candidates totaled 21 percent, and Senate GOP candidates combined for a smaller 22 percent. Democratic state legislators Anthony Portantino and Laura Friedman, and Democratic former city attorney Mike Feuer are the front-runners for this seat; if two of those three make it to the general election, it will be an expensive and sharp-elbowed race to November, but if one of the Republicans squeezes in, it's basically over.

In the 31st District, where Democrat Grace Napolitano is retiring, six Democrats and two Republicans are running. In 2022, the one Republican running for the seat, Daniel Martinez, advanced to the general by winning 37 percent of the vote in the primary. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros, state Sens. Susan Rubio and Bob Archuleta, former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz and attorney Greg Hafif are all running well-funded Democratic campaigns, creating the possibility that Martinez, who is running again, could finish in the top two instead of two Democrats, effectively ending this race tonight.

And in Kevin McCarthy's old seat, the 20th District, it's a similar story with the parties reversed. There, the two Democrats will probably combine for around 30 percent of the primary vote (in 2022, the House candidates combined for 30 percent and the Senate candidates for 32 percent), while six Republicans fight over the remaining 70 percent (a seventh dropped out but remains on the ballot).

Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections