Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw has long had a bit of a fractious relationship with the more extreme members of his party. He was one of just a few Republicans to vote to certify Biden's election in 2020, and he's often feuded with fellow Republican, Georgia's Marjorie Taylor Greene. Though he's been a reliable vote against the Biden agenda and is backing Trump again, co-hosting a fundraiser for the former president, he's clearly not alright with the base.

With about 73 percent of the vote reporting, he leads his conservative challenger Jameson Ellis by just 17 points. That might seem like a lot, but consider that just two years ago, Crenshaw also faced Ellis in the 2022 GOP primary and defeated him by a much wider 58-point margin.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is projected to win the Democratic primary in Texas's 18th District, fending off a challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. Jackson Lee lost a bit of steam in her congressional campaign by running for Houston mayor last year, a race she lost. But after jumping back into her reelection bid, she has managed to edge out the young upstart challenger in Edwards, all but guaranteeing her another term in this deep-blue district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

I don't doubt that there are parts of the GOP electorate this cycle that are hard to capture, and they may well be Democratic-leaning independents or just straight up Democrats. But equally importantly, we should keep in mind that primary polls are the most prone to error of all the kinds of election polls out there. And actually, outside of Michigan, the polls have been well within the 8 to 10 percentage points of average primary polling error we should expect.

—Galen Druke, 538

ABC News is projecting that Biden and Trump will win their respective presidential primaries in Texas, as will Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who Democrats are angling to unseat this fall. The race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas is hot, though as I mentioned earlier, the front-runner is Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who has represented the Dallas area since 2019.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Yesterday, the Supreme Court rejected the legal arguments claiming that Trump could be disqualified from running for president in 2024 because of his connection to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states that anyone who held a public or constitutional office and has engaged in insurrection is ineligible to hold office in the future, unless Congress passes a law stating otherwise. Section 5 says that Congress can also pass laws to enforce any of the provisions in the amendment. Lawsuits in several states came forward to disqualify Trump on these grounds.

But until recently, very few people had given much thought to this part of the 14th amendment since the years immediately following the Civil War. Legal scholars brought up a couple of ambiguities — did it apply to the presidency, since a number of offices are named, but not the president? Do we have an agreed upon definition of what counts as participating in an insurrection and whether Trump did that in 2021? (Spoiler alert: No.)

The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the state of Colorado could not disqualify Trump, though there were disagreements about how far to take that ruling. A majority held that Congress would need to pass a law in order to enforce Section 3. Though the unanimity of the ruling papered over some of the partisan politics, the timing was impossible to separate from political considerations, since it came just in time for today’s big round of contests.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor