Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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More runoffs projected in Texas, North Carolina

Catching up on some ABC News race projections that we missed earlier:

- In the Republican primary for North Carolina's 13th District, ABC News projects that Kelly Daughtry and Brad Knott will advance to a May 14 runoff. This is currently a Democratic-held seat, but the GOP legislature redrew it to be safely Republican, so whoever wins the runoff should be a shoo-in in November.

- In the Republican primary for Texas's 12th District, ABC News projects that Craig Goldman and John O'Shea will advance to a May 28 runoff. This is a solidly red open seat currently represented by retiring Rep. Kay Granger.

- And a bit of a surprise in the Republican primary for Texas's 23rd District: incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales garnered just 45 percent of the vote, forcing him into a runoff with second-place finisher Brandon Herrera. Gonzales was censured by the Texas GOP last year for supporting bipartisan gun legislation in the wake of the shooting in Uvalde, which is in his district. Clearly, the GOP base is still not happy with him.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Several incumbents ousted in the Texas state House

As we explained yesterday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Trump all set out to defeat several incumbent Republicans in the Texas state House yesterday (albeit for different reasons). The Associated Press has now projected winners in most of those races, and here's how they turned out: In total, at least eight Republican incumbents lost their primaries after being targeted by one of those three men. Another seven, including Speaker Dade Phelan, were forced into runoffs.

Abbott's muscle looks like it was the most effective: Five of the 10 incumbents he targeted (over their opposition to his school-voucher plan) lost, and another three went to runoffs. Trump also did OK: Two of the eight incumbents he targeted lost, and three more went to runoffs. Paxton didn't have as high of a success rate: Only seven of the 35 incumbents he targeted lost, although seven more were forced into runoffs. That's maybe not too surprising, though, since unlike Abbott, Paxton didn't put a ton of money where his mouth was.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Dean Phillips suspends his campaign, endorses Biden

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips ended his campaign for president today and endorsed Biden's reelection campaign. Phillips got into the race last fall, citing Democratic worries about Biden's age and ability to beat Trump. But his campaign never took off, even in New Hampshire, where he focused much of his efforts because Biden wasn't on the ballot due to the state's primary having violated the national Democrats' new calendar rules. Phillips won 20 percent of the New Hampshire vote, but he didn't clear 10 percent in any other state where he got on the ballot. Yesterday, he earned 8 percent in his home state of Minnesota and 9 percent in Oklahoma, his best showings otherwise.

Although some Democrats share Phillips's concerns about Biden, Phillips predictably struggled because the incumbent president remains relatively well-liked by those in his party. Phillips was an unusual primary challenger in that he didn't have sizable ideological disagreements with Biden that stoked his run — the moderate congressman was not from the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, for instance. And Phillips's overall performance reflects the lack of appetite for a center-left alternative to Biden — who hails from that part of the party — or at least one who didn't already have a sizable standing. Rather, the intraparty dissatisfaction with Biden has been felt more on the left, which has been especially critical of Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza situation. (See: the "Uncommitted" protest movement getting more votes than Phillips in his home state.) Tellingly, Marianne Williamson's minor left-wing campaign has actually won more votes than Phillips in 10 of the 15 primaries they both participated in.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


All incumbent Republicans lose in the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals primaries

As Nathaniel mentioned yesterday, in 2022, eight Republican judges on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals ruled that the attorney general cannot prosecute election-related cases without the participation or permission of a local prosecutor, a decision that upset Attorney General Paxton, Trump, and Gov. Abbott. Last night, three of those incumbents were up for reelection, and all three faced primary challengers endorsed by Paxton, Trump and Abbott. According to the Associated Press, with over 95 percent of the expected vote reported, all three appear to have lost to their primary challengers: Presiding Judge Sharon Keller is losing 37 percent to 63 percent to appellate lawyer David Schenck, Judge Barbara Parker Hervey is losing 34 to 66 percent to former Assistant District Attorney and businesswoman Gina Parker, and Judge Michelle Slaughter is losing 46 to 54 percent to criminal lawyer Lee Finley.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


More Republican women are running, but not many are winning

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the difference grows bigger each cycle. This has a lot to do with the supply of candidates — more women identify as Democrats, and the women in the pool of traditionally "qualified" candidates (college-educated, in white-collar professions) are likely to lean Democratic. There's also the issue of demand — Democrats are more than twice as likely (75 percent to 29 percent) than Republicans to agree that there are too few women in politics.

These supply and demand issues may be mitigated if the Republican Party's organizational arm and donor class actively recruited, endorsed and financially backed women in primaries for competitive, or safe, red seats in November. This is the playbook Democratic PAC EMILY's List has been working from for years to elect more Democratic women to Congress and governorships. According to academic researchers, Democratic groups designated to elect more women are more likely to be prioritized by their donors than their Republican counterparts, which helps explain their success.

Although the GOP doesn't have a heavyweight equivalent to EMILY's List (which spends millions each cycle), there are groups committed to electing more Republican women to Congress. A couple of prominent new groups (Winning for Women and Elevate PAC) cropped up after the 2018 election, which elected 42 new women to Congress, but only four that were Republican. As a result, in both the 2020 and 2022 cycles, more Republican women ran in primaries than ever before, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.

But more women running doesn't always translate into more women winning. As we wrote ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, more Democratic than Republican women were nominated to run that year in House and Senate races where their party was either competitive or favored to win. While the GOP may have run and endorsed more women in primaries, it didn't emulate Democrats' strategy of actively recruiting women to run in races where they could win in November.

Today, there are just a few non-incumbent Republican women competitive for nominations in races they'd have any shot of winning in November. In Alabama's 2nd District, an incumbent-less primary due to redistricting, four of the eight Republicans running for the nomination are women. Of those women, attorney Caroleene Dobson has been endorsed by the women-focused VIEW PAC. Neither Trump nor the party committee has endorsed any candidate in that primary, but Dobson faces tough odds winning the crowded primary, and even tougher odds in a general expected to heavily favor Democrats.

11 Republicans are competing in Texas's 26th District, another race with no incumbent. Of two women in the race, Luisa del Rosal, a small business owner and former congressional chief of staff, has been endorsed by VIEW PAC. But she will have to defeat Trump endorsee Brandon Gill (who's also endorsed by the Club for Growth). The Republican woman running today with the most likely path to victory is former Rep. Mayra Flores: she's running to reclaim Texas's 34th District, the seat she won in a 2022 special election but lost in the general election later that year. She is endorsed by both Trump and VIEW PAC, which bodes well for her to face Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in a competitive general.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor