ABC News now projects that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player, will advance in California's U.S. Senate race. This will set up a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican contest in November, which is unlikely to be interesting in deep-blue California. With 41 percent of the estimated vote reporting, Schiff leads Garvey 37 percent to 29 percent. That suggests that Schiff's spending on ads to improve Garvey's name recognition among Republicans succeeded, allowing the congressman to avoid facing fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is in third with 15 percent. And while we are still waiting for more returns, our map of the top-two Senate primary shows only Schiff and Garvey holding leads in any county that has results, speaking to their edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With all precincts reporting in North Carolina’s 8th congressional district, Baptist minister Mark Harris is winning 30.44 percent of the vote per North Carolina's State Board of Elections, successfully avoiding a runoff and securing his spot on the ballot in the solidly Republican district after ballot fraud allegations kept him out of Congress in 2018.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

I've been keeping half an eye on the race for the chief justice for the state Supreme Court in Arkansas, and the four-way race is very close. With almost all of the expected vote in, two sitting justices, Justice Rhonda Wood and Justice Karen Baker, are virtually tied at about 27 percent each, according to The New York Times. If they remain the top two candidates when all the votes are in, they'll had to a runoff in November. Fun fact: Baker is from my hometown of Clinton, Arkansas.

—Monica Potts, 538

A big question is whether Trump is line to mathematically clinch the nomination next Tuesday, March 12 — the earliest possible date on the calendar that a candidate (namely, Trump) could claim a majority of the GOP's 2,429 national delegates. And it looks like it could be close.

Trump entered the night with 247 delegates to Haley's 43, according to 538's delegate benchmark tracker, and he looks in line to win roughly 775 to 805 delegates out of 854 that were up for grabs today. That would put him at around 1,025 to 1,055 delegates. If he's on the short end of that range, a Trump sweep of all delegates in contests after today up through March 12 would put him just above the 1,215 mark to clinch. This makes the Vermont result, where Haley is just above 50 percent, pretty important, because it would mean the difference between Trump claiming about 0 delegates, or claiming 8 should Haley fall short of a majority in her victory.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I just want to underscore Elliott's point about how hard polling has gotten with a quick story I wrote up in a paper with Tori Gorton called "On the Internet, No One Knows You're An Activist." We were trying to survey lower-engagement voters, so we drew a sample of 9,937 registered Pennsylvania voters who hadn't consistently voted 2012-2018. Then, we matched them to Facebook accounts and served ads to 1,321 inviting them to take a survey. 66 people clicked on our ad, 7 began the survey, 6 completed it, and 1 person left an email for follow-up. I of course want to express my deep gratitude to that one respondent. But beyond that, a 0.4% response rate magnifies sampling errors, because very small differences in people's willingness to take polls can add up to very large errors in vote margins. That's especially true in primaries, where pollsters can't use partisan identification to stabilize the results.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor