While the overall result has differed, the Vermont map below showcases a similar trend to Massachusetts. As Nathaniel pointed out, Boston and its well-to-do suburbs leaned towards Haley. In Vermont, Haley's strongest results came in areas just across the New Hampshire border from Dartmouth College and in the stretch of land between Montpelier and Burlington, which benefit economically from those population centers and a few prominent ski resorts.

—Amina Brown, 538

In 2022, our analysis showed that just 48 percent of Republican women in open primaries endorsed by VIEWPAC (a PAC dedicated to electing more women) won. As we observed at the time, VIEWPAC was willing to endorse candidates running against Trump endorsees, which was a bold, but losing, strategy in 2022. Tonight, VIEWPAC candidates in open primaries are not having a lot of success. As I already mentioned, in Alabama's 2nd District, Caroleene Dobson trails Dick Brewbaker. And in Texas's 26th District, another endorsee, Luisa del Rosa, a small business owner, is in a distant fourth place behind a Trump endorsee, Brandon Gill, with 88 percent of the expected votes in. (Gill has also been endorsed by Club for Growth.) But in Texas's 34th, the race has been called for their endorsee, Maya Flores ... who is also endorsed by Trump.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Nikki Haley's delegate count from Vermont hinges on whether she clears the 50 percent threshold. And right now, she's incredibly close to it. With 68,420 votes cast, Haley has 34,215, which is 4 more votes than the 50 percent plus 1 she needs to sweep the state's delegates. When I simulate 100,000 primaries with that number of total votes and an even 50-50 split, I get a result that's within that tight margin only 3 percent of the time.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Polls have closed in California, and ABC News projects that Trump will win the Golden State. He should easily clear 50 percent and claim all of the state's 169 delegates.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

This is the best live blog in the industry ;), but I know you may have some chores to finish up before settling in for a night of election results. Those dishes aren’t going to wash themselves! So if you’d rather listen to our analysis, I’ve got a podcast episode for you. Nathaniel, Leah, Geoff, friend of the pod Tia Mitchell and I sat down yesterday to talk about what to expect from the top of the ticket tonight. Where might Haley overperform? And when will Trump sew up the nomination?

We also talked about Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he’ll retire from his post this November and what that means for the direction of the Republican Party. And we discussed the political and policy chaos that has followed the Alabama Supreme Court’s decision in February that embryos are children, complicating the procurement of in vitro fertilization services in the state.

Later tonight we’ll record a podcast reacting to the Super Tuesday results, so make sure to check your feeds tomorrow morning too!

—Galen Druke, 538