I've already gone on about Phillips a bit tonight, but I think it's interesting that he tried to challenge Biden from the center, or mostly on the basis of personal characteristics. This feels notable because Biden's major weakness would seem to be from the left. But the main vehicle for opposition votes to Biden has been the "uncommitted" movement — not a specific candidate. This might be because the progressive wing of the party doesn't have a younger and agreed-upon candidate yet, or because they see Biden as the best realistic bet for achieving some of their policy goals.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz projected to win his primary — he's got 89 percent of the votes counted so far — the question becomes whether he will face as tough a race in November as he did back in 2018. Six years ago, he beat Beto O'Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points, raising questions about whether Democrats could actually win a statewide federal race in the Lone Star State. But recently, his approval rating has notched up after being underwater for much of 2021 and 2022. On the Democratic side, Colin Allred is winning 62 percent of the Democratic vote with just over half the expected vote in.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 Contributor

In the Democratic primary for the Texas’s 15th Congressional District, Michelle Vallejo is leading with 32 percent of the expected vote in. She ran unsuccessfully for the seat in the 2022 midterms, but she’s leading her opponent, John Villarreal Rigney, 73 percent to 27 percent, according to The New York Times. Villarreal Rigney tried to run as the more conservative candidate, but Vallejo has the endorsement of much of the Democratic establishment and the pro-Israel group, Democratic Majority for Israel, or DMFI. AIPAC has endorsed her Republican opponent, the current incumbent, Rep. Monica de la Cruz. If Democrats can flip any seat in Texas, this is a likely one, making this race potentially competitive in November. Both AIPAC and DMFI have invested on the Democratic side to try to fend of progressive, anti-war challengers in Congress.

—Monica Potts, 538

Earlier I wrote that although more Republican women are running, the GOP conference is still largely represented by men. North Carolina, where polls just closed, nicely illustrates some of the reasons that Republican women continue to trail Democratic women by such large margins, in Congress. North Carolina has low female representation in their state legislature (which is just 29 percent female), and that limits their recruitment from that pool. And in today's open primaries in safely Republican districts where the GOP primary will effectively decide the next representative, women aren't among the most competitive. As Kaleigh wrote earlier, in the 8th District outside Charlotte, the two GOP front runners are state Rep. John Bradford, and Baptist minister Mark Harris. And in the 10th District, the race is largely between state Rep. Grey Mills and Pat Harrigan, a gun manufacturer. There are several non-incumbent women running in the state today, but none of the groups we are watching that support Republican women (Winning for Women, VIEW-PAC, E-PAC or Maggie's List) have made endorsements.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor