Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out
538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.
March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.
It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.
538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Gill wins in Texas’s 26th
ABC News projects that Brandon Gill will be the Republican nominee in Texas's 26th Congressional District. Because this district is solidly red, that means he is extremely likely to be the seat's next representative, succeeding the retiring Michael Burgess. Gill is a proud member of the MAGA wing of the party; he was endorsed by Trump and is also the son-in-law of conservative political commentator Dinesh D'Souza, who made the documentary "2000 Mules," which falsely alleges voter fraud in the 2020 election.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
More House projections
Here are a few more projections from our colleagues at the ABC News decision desk:
- In California's 40th District, a swing seat, Republican Rep. Young Kim will face off against Democrat Joe Kerr in November.
- In Alabama's 2nd District, Democrats Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels will advance to an April 16 runoff, the winner of which will be favored to win this newly drawn seat in November.
- In North Carolina's 6th District, Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker will advance to a May 14 runoff. The winner will be virtually guaranteed to be heading to Congress next year, as this district was recently redrawn to be safely Republican.
- In California's 20th District (Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Republican Vince Fong will be one of the candidates advancing to the November general election. His opponent is still TBD.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Final thought: Are women going to break more records? Too early to know
As my colleagues have already noted, the Republican primary is essentially over. But Haley's Vermont victory is the first time a Republican woman will win a state's presidential primary. (She also won the primary in D.C.) So, check a box for a broken record. But I had my eye on Republican and Democratic women in downballot races tonight, and overall it looks like Republican women without their party's or Trump's endorsement struggled to win in places where they have a good chance of winning in November. An exception is in North Carolina's 1st District, where wealthy business owner Laurie Buckhout is the projected winner. That seat will be tight contest in November. As of writing this, Democratic women are looking to be doing well in safely blue districts, like California's 12th and 29th, and Texas's 32nd. But tonight's results suggests the senators from California will both be men, after decades of female leadership in those seats. I'll continue to watch women's progress in both parties for 538, to identify trends and whether more records will be broken.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Final thought: Congress is the most interesting fight now
The presidential primaries are, for all intents and purposes, over. That means we can finally shift our focus to the primaries that are going to have the most impact on the outcome in November, in the House and Senate. Tonight we saw the first of those contests, and they did not disappoint. In Alabama, an appropriator, Rep. Jerry Carl, lost to a firebrand colleague, Barry Moore, in a member versus member primary. (Let's see what that does to morale in the GOP conference.) In California, Adam Schiff successfully engineered an uncompetitive general election against Republican Steve Garvey, freeing up tens of millions in small donor dollars for races elsewhere around the country. In North Carolina, a bevy of upcoming runoffs will help determine what shape the next House GOP conference takes. And in Texas, we're going to find out in the 23rd District just how much deviation from party orthodoxy is tolerated, when Tony Gonzales faces the music for his votes on a gun bill (negotiated by the state's own senior GOP senator!). Presidential season may be over, but the fun is just beginning.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Several incumbents ousted in the Texas state House
As we explained yesterday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Trump all set out to defeat several incumbent Republicans in the Texas state House yesterday (albeit for different reasons). The Associated Press has now projected winners in most of those races, and here's how they turned out: In total, at least eight Republican incumbents lost their primaries after being targeted by one of those three men. Another seven, including Speaker Dade Phelan, were forced into runoffs.
Abbott's muscle looks like it was the most effective: Five of the 10 incumbents he targeted (over their opposition to his school-voucher plan) lost, and another three went to runoffs. Trump also did OK: Two of the eight incumbents he targeted lost, and three more went to runoffs. Paxton didn't have as high of a success rate: Only seven of the 35 incumbents he targeted lost, although seven more were forced into runoffs. That's maybe not too surprising, though, since unlike Abbott, Paxton didn't put a ton of money where his mouth was.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538