Most of the Republicans that emerge from the GOP primaries in North Carolina today will be men. But in the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis awaits today's outcome, which will determine if he'll face Republican MAGA-firebrand, Sandy Smith (again), or wealthy businesswoman, Laurie Buckhout. As we wrote earlier, the 1st District will likely be the state's sole competitive House race in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In the first 19 towns in Vermont with reasonably complete results, Trump's support this year correlates at around 0.60 with his support back in 2016, which is a pretty high correlation and similar to what we saw in New Hampshire. But as we've observed in other states, Trump is also doing well in the Vermont towns where Ted Cruz had more support in 2016. Since 2016, Trump has consolidated the GOP's right-leaning voters.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

We're still waiting on results in most races, but I'm also watching Oklahoma, where polls have just closed. Trump has a massive lead against Haley in recent Republican primary polling in Oklahoma, and, since the primary is closed, Haley can't count on independents and Democrats shrinking his margin against her. Trump won the state in the 2020 general election with 65 percent of the vote, making it one of his best states in the U.S., and Biden did not win a single county there.

Heavily evangelical, with a mix of Southern and Western spirit, Oklahoma remains one of the reddest states in the country. Whoever wins this primary race is almost certain to carry the state in November. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, the state's junior senator, has called on Haley to drop out if she doesn't win a single state tonight.

—Monica Potts, 538

The 2024 primary season has been weirder than I think anyone expected. The two parties feel like they have a lot of internal tension, but with a current and a former president seeking their parties' respective nominations, it hasn't been very competitive. One result of this has been that we've been looking for clues to the general — the Trump-Biden rematch — in the primary results. In turn, this has meant some overinterpretation of primary results — it's not a given that people who cast a vote for another candidate won't come home in the general.

It's also hard to compare the internal dynamics of the two parties and apply those to predictions for the general. Dean Phillips' candidacy, for example, has presented himself as a moderate, pragmatic alternative to Biden — but he's mostly emphasized the age difference. Some Democrats have been unhappy with the policies of the administration, especially on the Israel issue, but there hasn't been a progressive candidate to challenge him. Trump, on the other hand, has faced — and beaten — experienced opponents with more substantive disagreements. This makes it harder to use the primary as a direct roadmap to what the candidates' liabilities might be in the fall.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

If the polls are right, there will be very little drama tonight in presidential races: Trump has massive leads over Haley in virtually every state. For instance, here's what our primary polling averages say in the six states with enough polling to calculate one:

Trump also leads by at least 42 percentage points in the few state-level polls we have this year from Alabama, Maine, Minnesota and Oklahoma. His lead is smaller, though still substantial, in the most recent surveys of Utah (27 points) and Vermont (30 points). Unfortunately, we're flying blind in the last three states; we don't have any polls of Arkansas since last fall, or any polls of Alaska or Colorado, period.

But what if … the polls are wrong? Even in the states where we've calculated averages, there is precious little truly recent polling. The only polls of Super Tuesday states conducted entirely within the last month were four of California, two of Maine, one of Minnesota, two of North Carolina, one of Texas, one of Vermont and one of Virginia. That's not a lot of data to go off.

Plus, primary polls so far this year have overestimated Trump's margin over Haley. This isn't necessarily unusual; since 2000, presidential primary polls have had an average error of 9 points. But the fact that the direction of that error has been consistent so far is … interesting. We usually caution against trying to predict the direction of polling error in advance, but this could — could — indicate that pollsters' likely-voter models for the primary are too weighted toward the Trump wing of the GOP.

As Geoffrey and I wrote yesterday, there are certain states — Colorado, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia — that seem demographically favorable for Haley. Despite what the polls say, I wouldn't be totally shocked if Haley pulled off a win in one of them. As noted, Colorado hasn't seen any polling this cycle, and Massachusetts hasn't seen any in a month. And while a poll gave Trump a 30-point lead in Vermont a few weeks back, the most recent poll of Virginia put Trump's lead over Haley at just 8 points among likely voters.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538