ABC News projects that Rep. Barry Moore will defeat fellow Rep. Jerry Carl in Alabama's 1st District GOP primary, winning the lone incumbent-versus-incumbent primary we're expecting to have this cycle.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The big races I was eyeing in North Carolina are tightening up. In the 1st District (which is set to be the only competitive Congressional race in the Tar Heel state in November), wealthy businesswoman Laurie Buckhout is projected to win the GOP nomination. The 6th District looks destined for a runoff. In the 8th District, Mark Harris (whose 2018 win was thrown out due to allegations of ballot fraud) is projected to win the Republican nomination. And in the 13th District, Kelly Daughtry, an attorney who came in third in the Republican primary in 2022, is creeping closer to the 30 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Not a ton of surprises, but an interesting night downballot for sure!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

The race in California's 47th District is competitive within the Democratic field where, as we've mentioned, Rep. Katie Porter decided to run for Senate, opening up her House seat. The House primary she won in 2018 to face (and eventually defeat) the Republican incumbent, Mimi Walters was also competitive. In fact, Dave Min, who is running today, was the favored Democrat in that 2018 primary, but Porter beat him out to finish second, behind Walters, and went on to win the seat. With 46 percent of the expected vote in, Min is leading his closet rival, Joanna Weiss, by about 8 points.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Redistricting made Alabama's 2nd District Democratic-leaning, and a bevy of candidates jumped into the party primary with a shot at winnable seat. But in Alabama, primary winners must win a majority, so the crowded race has made an April runoff likely. With about 80 percent of the expected vote reporting, former Justice Department official Shomari Figures leads with nearly 44 percent. ABC News has projected that Figures, the son of longtime state Sen. Vivian Figures and the late state Sen. Michael Figures, will advance to the likely runoff. The race of the second runoff spot is not set, but state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels has 22 percent, ahead of state Rep. Napoleon Bracy's 16 percent. Daniel actually hails from Huntsville in the north of the state, far from the southern Alabama base of the district. Bracy is from Mobile, and there are still some votes left to report from there, so he can't be discounted.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As the Super Tuesday results come in, there will be a lot of attention to how they compare with the 2016 primaries. In early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump has tended to do better in the places where he did well eight years ago. But we should be careful not to overstate the continuity. While Trump was seen as a relatively moderate Republican back in 2016, he now anchors the conservative end of the political spectrum.

In January 2016, Diana Mutz and I asked a population-based panel of Americans 26 and older whom they supported in the GOP presidential primary. Back then, Trump's best group of GOP primary voters were actually those who called themselves "moderates," while Ted Cruz won respondents who said they were "extremely conservative." Later that year, we asked all respondents to place Trump on a 7-point ideology scale, where "1" meant "extremely liberal" and 7 meant "extremely conservative." Trump scored 5.0, placing him almost exactly at "slightly conservative."

But after Trump had been president for three years and had overseen major tax cuts and an effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act — not to mention being the face of a growing contingent of MAGA-inspired conservatives — perceptions of him had changed. In January 2020, our panelists rated him a 5.6, meaning they saw him as closer to "conservative" than to "slightly conservative."

Other data reinforces the idea that perceptions of Trump continued to shift, and that he shed the perception of being a moderate. In April 2021, I teamed up with Hans Noel to ask political activists who was more conservative among pairs of prominent politicians. From those comparisons, we generated perceived ideology scores. By then, Trump was perceived by all respondents to be fairly far on the conservative end of the spectrum, with just ten GOP politicians to his right versus 43 to his left. (The Republicans who were perceived to be on his right are generally seen as Trump allies, such as Sens. Tommy Tuberville, Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.) It's noteworthy that at the time, Nikki Haley was ranked just two slots less conservative than Trump.

Noel and I replicated the analysis in November 2023 in a YouGov survey of American adults. Among Republican survey respondents, Ron DeSantis was thought to be the second most conservative figure, with only Ted Cruz viewed as more conservative. But Trump was also far on the conservative end of the spectrum, ranking fifth out of 23 Republicans on the list. It's no surprise that in that same survey, Trump's best group for the primary was respondents who called themselves "very conservative."

Haley, by contrast, had come to be seen as closer to the center of the GOP — she was viewed as more conservative than Mitch McConnell, Chris Christie and Kevin McCarthy, but also more liberal than fellow primary candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Mike Pence, and Trump allies like Hawley and Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Haley's best group in the November survey was self-described "moderates," although Trump still won that group with 51 percent compared to Haley's 18.

That reflects the fact that DeSantis and Haley cut somewhat different profiles among GOP primary voters. While Haley is the Trump challenger still in the race, DeSantis seems to have been the bigger threat to the conservative base that Trump has come to rely on. And with DeSantis out of the race, Trump has been able to consolidate the GOP's conservative wing, which has increasingly been defined by his politics since 2016.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor