Smith is an outspoken, MAGA-style firebrand who hasn’t managed to pull out a win in the area and would have been a more appealing (read: weaker) opponent for the freshman congressman in this swingy district. As I mentioned earlier, the 1st District has long been a Democratic stronghold — it hasn’t elected a Republican in over 140 years — but after redistricting, it was redrawn to become a tossup district, and is set to be the only real competitive Congressional race in North Carolina this fall.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In North Carolina's 1st congressional district, Buckhout is projected to win the Republican primary, according to The New York Times. We wrote about this earlier, but her win comes on the strength of national Republican Party efforts to make her the nominee over two-time candidate in the district, Sandy Smith, a candidate with a more Trumpy profile. Buckhout will take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis in November.

—Monica Potts, 538

With more than 90 percent of North Carolina's expected vote in, we can now say more about the patterns in that state. First, Trump is romping statewide, with 75 percent to Haley's 23 percent. But where is Trump doing especially well? In counties with few people with college degrees, sure. But also in counties with lower population density and more Black voters. That said, it doesn't mean Trump is doing well with Black GOP voters — preliminary data from the North Carolina exit poll suggest that in fact non-White Republican primary voters were a bit less supportive of Trump than white Republican primary voters. Instead, Trump is doing especially well in the counties with more Black residents (regardless of whether they're voting tonight or not).

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

With 81-year-old Rep. Kay Granger set to retire, the primary race to replace her in Texas's 12th District looks like it may go to the more establishment GOP candidate: state Rep. Craig Goldman, who is currently leading with 46 percent and 78 percent of expected votes in. He'll need to get 50 percent of the vote (plus one vote) to avoid a runoff with local businessman John O'Shea, a more Trumpian candidate who currently has 25 percent of the vote.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

It’s the biggest day of the primary season, and former President Donald Trump could very well sweep all 15 GOP presidential nominating contests today. With limited polling in many of these states, it’s not out of the question that former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley could pick off a state or two, but barring a massive shocker, the main question tonight is whether she’ll drop out and make Trump the presumptive Republican nominee.

Outside of the presidential race, it’s a day us election nerds have been waiting for — the first day of downballot primary season! We’ve got our eye on dozens of primary contests happening in Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas, where November’s battle lines will be drawn as we find out which candidates will be on the ballot for everything from congressional seats to city councils.

As always, 538 analysts will be here bringing you the latest results and analysis as polls close, from Vermont and Virginia (7 p.m. Eastern) through Alaska (midnight). Thanks for joining us!

—Tia Yang, 538