Based on an analysis of the vote, ABC News projects that Trump and Biden will win their presidential primaries in Arkansas. With about 7 percent of the expected vote in, Womack is holding onto his lead in the 3rd Congressional District 60 percent to 40 percent against Penzo.

—Monica Potts, 538

I'll be very interested to see, when the dust settles tonight, if the polls are more on the money in states with closed primaries, where bored (or wily) Democrats can't vote in the Republican Party primary for Haley. A lot of the exit polling data we've seen on Haley supporters and who they'll vote for in the general election, or whether they approve of Biden's job performance, makes me wonder how many of her voters are just plain old Democrats who are getting screened out of a lot of GOP primary polling. But we'd see a difference in closed primary states (to the extent we have robust polling there to make the comparison)!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Julia, I'm suspicious that the reason Trump's lead in primary polling has been somewhat exaggerated is that pollsters are not necessarily capturing some of the independents who are showing up to vote in a GOP primary. As Nate Cohn recently pointed out in The New York Times, some pollsters have filtered for likely GOP primary voters by mostly or only looking at voters who've voted in Republican primaries. But a fair number of independents, including Democratic-leaning ones, wouldn't necessarily fall in that category. But with Biden a lock to win the Democratic nomination — barring something happening outside of the voting booth — Democratic-leaning voters have only one race to get involved in. Although we know there aren't that many "cross-over" voters who participate in the opposing party's primary, some high-propensity Democratic voters and some Democratic-leaning independents have probably voted in states that allow non-Republicans to cast ballots in the GOP primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In 2016, people who said they were undecided in polls were more likely to vote for Trump as "professor polls" explains in this great 538 video I show my students. But in 2024, Trump supporters aren't so shy. It's the rest of the GOP that might be more bashful.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

As we wait for the final winners of Super Tuesday's primaries to be projected, here's where things stand in the races we're tracking:

- California's 16th District: With 57 percent of the expected vote reporting, Democrat Sam Liccardo has 22 percent, Democrat Joe Simitian has 18 percent, Democrat Evan Low has 16 percent and Republican Peter Ohtaki has 13 percent. This is a solid blue district, so we expect two Democrats to advance to the general election.

- California's 20th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Vince Fong (currently at 39 percent with 52 percent of the expected vote counted) will take one of the general-election slots, but the other is still up for grabs between Republican Mike Boudreaux (25 percent) and Democrat Marisa Wood (22 percent).

- California's 22nd District: With 50 percent of the expected vote counted, Republican incumbent David Valadao has 34 percent, Democrat Rudy Salas has 28 percent, Republican Chris Mathys has 22 percent and Democrat Melissa Hurtado has 15 percent. Democrats were afraid of getting shut out of the general election in this swing seat, but that doesn't look likely to happen now.

- California's 31st District: Democrats should maybe be more worried about a lockout in this open, safely Democratic seat. With 70 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Gil Cisneros has 21 percent, Republican Daniel Martinez has 21 percent and Republican Pedro Casas has 19 percent.

- California's 45th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will advance to the general; she has 57 percent of the expected vote with 82 percent reporting. Her November opponent will either be Democrat Derek Tran (16 percent) or Democrat Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (14 percent).

- North Carolina's 8th District: With 97 percent of the expected vote in, Republican Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just barely above the threshold to avoid a runoff. The Associated Press has already declared him the winner.

- Texas's 32nd District: Similarly, with 99 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Julie Johnson is at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. If she does face one, it would be against fellow Democrat Brian Williams, who is at 19 percent of the vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538