Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Final thought: The action is downballot

Okay, maybe I'm biased because it was my assignment to report out some of the downballot races tonight, but when the presidential primaries are basically all over but the cryin', they make for much more interesting politics. But once Biden and Trump make it official, don't let the intensity of the presidential race overshadow these races further down the ballot. There's a lot at stake — majority powers in two narrowly divided chambers! — and these races can sometimes tell us more about what voters think is important than the marquee race at the top of the ticket. Of course, you can always depend on 538 to keep you up to speed!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Final thought: The real winner is presidency-centered parties

With the exception of a remarkable outcome in American Samoa, this was a night without very many surprises. Trump and Biden continue to dominate their respective parties, even as doubts linger — about age, about policy and about electability, to name a few concerns. But Trump's main opponent, Haley, has just won her second primary of the season — Vermont. Biden has opposition on the left, but no challenger; from the center of his party, he has a challenger, but no clear opposition.

One lesson from all of this is that even for candidates with as many liabilities as these have, it is incredibly difficult to compete with the name recognition and influence of a sitting or former president. In theory, parties could opt to nominate someone other than the sitting president — in practice, they have not really done so since the mid-19th century. Parties have come to be defined by their presidents. We especially see this with Trump, but this primary season and Super Tuesday have highlighted just how much it's true of Biden, too.

And yet it shows the cracks in the presidential dominance of their parties as well. Even as Trump has largely taken over the GOP, there remains a consistent, if small, segment that would like to see the party move in a different direction. And even as Biden continues to (almost) sweep the primaries, activists are organizing to use the primaries to protest some of his policies. Still, it's telling that ultimately these intraparty disagreements aren't framed as fights between factions, but rather in terms of support or opposition to the presidential figure at the head of the party.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor


Winding down for the evening!

We're not ending the live blog just yet since there are more results to come ... But we're going to get some shuteye and be back here tomorrow, bringing you updates from some of today's later-closing races.

So, it's "final" thoughts time — what did everyone take away from tonight's results?

—Tia Yang, 538


An upset win for the Freedom Caucus

Interesting, Geoffrey. I was expecting Carl to win that one, as he had the geographic advantage: Carl and Moore were thrown together into this new district in redistricting, and Carl represented 59 percent of residents in the new district. But perhaps Moore’s conservative bona fides carried the day: He is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, so this primary was a victory for the insurgent wing of the Republican Party.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


What races are we still waiting on?

As we wait for the final winners of Super Tuesday's primaries to be projected, here's where things stand in the races we're tracking:

- California's 16th District: With 57 percent of the expected vote reporting, Democrat Sam Liccardo has 22 percent, Democrat Joe Simitian has 18 percent, Democrat Evan Low has 16 percent and Republican Peter Ohtaki has 13 percent. This is a solid blue district, so we expect two Democrats to advance to the general election.

- California's 20th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Vince Fong (currently at 39 percent with 52 percent of the expected vote counted) will take one of the general-election slots, but the other is still up for grabs between Republican Mike Boudreaux (25 percent) and Democrat Marisa Wood (22 percent).

- California's 22nd District: With 50 percent of the expected vote counted, Republican incumbent David Valadao has 34 percent, Democrat Rudy Salas has 28 percent, Republican Chris Mathys has 22 percent and Democrat Melissa Hurtado has 15 percent. Democrats were afraid of getting shut out of the general election in this swing seat, but that doesn't look likely to happen now.

- California's 31st District: Democrats should maybe be more worried about a lockout in this open, safely Democratic seat. With 70 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Gil Cisneros has 21 percent, Republican Daniel Martinez has 21 percent and Republican Pedro Casas has 19 percent.

- California's 45th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will advance to the general; she has 57 percent of the expected vote with 82 percent reporting. Her November opponent will either be Democrat Derek Tran (16 percent) or Democrat Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (14 percent).

- North Carolina's 8th District: With 97 percent of the expected vote in, Republican Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just barely above the threshold to avoid a runoff. The Associated Press has already declared him the winner.

- Texas's 32nd District: Similarly, with 99 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Julie Johnson is at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. If she does face one, it would be against fellow Democrat Brian Williams, who is at 19 percent of the vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538