While we're on the topic of Vermont politics (and books), I can't recommend Frank Bryan's book Real Democracy highly enough. Over decades, Bryan sent college students to attend town meetings throughout Vermont, where local residents make key decisions in a form of direct democracy that's uncommon elsewhere. The product is a highly readable book with plenty of local color about direct democracy in Vermont's towns.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Ha, Jacob, to that point: If anyone is interested in some Vermont political history, here are a couple recs from someone who recently moved to the state (me). There's "The Star That Set: The Vermont Republican Party, 1854-1974," which lays out the rise and dominance of the GOP in Vermont, then its decline in the latter half of the 20th century as the state became two-party competitive. And "Philip Hoff: How Red Turned Blue in the Green Mountain State" investigates the changes in Vermont during the 1960s that surrounded Democratic Gov. Philip Hoff, the first Democrat to win Vermont's governorship after the Civil War. (This ends the Vermont Book Club portion of the evening.)

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

ABC News projects North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson to be the Republican nominee for Governor in the state. This was the outcome that was widely expected, as Robinson had been leading the race. It's expected that he'll square off against state Attorney General Josh Stein, who is leading the Democratic primary, and it looks like it'll be a competitive race. If you're not familiar with Robinson, he first gained attention in 2018 when a video of him speaking at a Greensboro City Council meeting in support of gun rights went viral. In 2020, he was elected as Lieutenant Governor, the state's first Black Lieutenant Governor, and he has been a controversial figure.

A devout Christian, Robinson stays true to his roots by tending toward impassioned, sermon-style speeches. However, those speeches have often veered into inflammatory and bigoted language, particularly towards the LGBTQ+ community. As recently as February, he said that transgender women should be arrested for using the bathroom corresponding to their gender identity and suggested they "go outside." He has said straight couples are "superior" to gay couples, that "God made him issues, and that anyone in the GOP who doesn't support him will face God's "vengeance.". Suffice to say, he's a controversial figure, not unlike the party's leader, and will represent a significant shift in North Carolina state politics if he's elected to the governor's mansion this November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Yeah, Mary, I suspected we might see a sizable polling error or two! Polling presidential primaries is really hard — this century, presidential primary polls have missed the mark by an average of 9 points. And with just one poll in Vermont over the past month, we were putting a lot of eggs in one polling basket.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538