Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Utah Democrats decide

ABC News projects that Biden will win the Utah Democratic primary. With about 47 percent of the expected vote counted, Biden has 88 percent in the Beehive State.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Moore leads Carl in all-incumbent clash in Alabama's 1st District

Time for our first update of what's happening in the Republican primary in Alabama's 1st District. There, court-ordered redistricting precipitated an incumbent-versus-incumbent contest between Reps. Barry Moore and Jerry Carl. With nearly half of the expected vote now reporting, Moore leads Carl 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent. Moore's edge might come as a surprise considering Carl outraised Moore and had more outside spending help. Moreover, Carl currently represents more of the new 1st District under the old district lines. But Carl still could catch Moore thanks to his home base of Mobile County, where only 9 percent of the expected vote has reported, with Carl up 74 percent to 26 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Jason Palmer’s PR team

I’m sure I’m not the only reporter who’s been receiving emails from Anderson Group Public Affairs, a PR firm flacking for Jason Palmer for several months now. I guess I should have been paying more attention before just sending them to my trash! Also, I think he’s the only candidate working with a PR firm that also sends emails with the subject line “Interview Entrepreneur Behind Billion Dollar Sex Toy Company.”

Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


If you’re furiously Googling Jason Palmer right now …

You’re not alone. He’s currently trending on Twi—I mean X, and his campaign website appears to have crashed.

Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Why the 2016 Republican primary vote suggested Haley could win Vermont

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538