Republicans won the Senate

We entered Election Day filled with ample uncertainty, but one thing we could say with relative confidence was that Republicans were clear favorites to gain control of the U.S. Senate. Helped out by former President Donald Trump's edge in most (if not all) of the seven pivotal swing states, the GOP appears to have done more than just grab control — the party could have its largest majority in at least a decade, if not more.

As of early this morning, ABC News has projected Republican gains in three states, while Republican candidates hold the lead in two other seats currently held by Democrats. In addition, no GOP-held seats are projected to change hands, so the GOP should move to at least a four-seat edge in the Senate, with several more opportunities to add to the GOP caucus as returns continue to roll in.

Entering this election, Democrats held a wafer-thin 51-to-49 seat majority in the Senate, aided by the four independents who caucus with them. That meant the GOP needed a net gain of one seat to get to a 50-50 tie — in which case the party controlling the vice presidency would control the Senate — or two seats to attain outright control. Helpfully for them, Republicans had a number of juicy pickup opportunities, including three Democratic-held seats in states that former President Donald Trump carried in 2016, 2020 and, as it turned out, in 2024, too. Meanwhile, Democrats had few realistic possibilities of gaining ground from the GOP. Understandably, 538's final Senate forecast gave Republicans slightly better than a 9-in-10 shot of winning the chamber.

Republicans got their 50th seat with their easiest pickup of the night in West Virginia, where the retirement of Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin all but ensured a GOP flip in the Mountain State. Popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice appears to have cruised to landslide victory, as he's ahead of Democrat Glenn Elliott 69 percent to 28 percent. In a state that Trump is carrying by more than 40 percentage points, this was anything but a surprise.

The 51st seat for Republicans came in Ohio. Republican Bernie Moreno is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown: With 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno currently holds a 50 percent to 46 percent lead. Brown ran ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who trails Trump 55 percent to 44 percent in Ohio, but the incumbent couldn’t capture enough Trump voters to hold onto his seat.

Republicans are also projected to win in Montana, the third red-state seat held by Democrats. There, Republican Tim Sheehy leads Democratic Sen. Jon Tester by around 8 points, 53 percent to 45 percent (with 88 percent of the expected vote reporting). Like Brown, Tester also ran ahead of Harris, who has won only about 38 percent in Big Sky Country.

And it looks like perhaps as many as four other Democratic-held seats are in play for Republicans. As of this writing, Republican Mike Rogers narrowly trails Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than 1 point in Michigan, with about 4 percent of the expected vote outstanding. In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by less than 1 point, 49.1 percent to 48.3 percent, with 4 percent of the expected vote remaining to be counted. In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown holds a very narrow edge over Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen with around 88 percent of the expected vote reporting. Republicans could even compete for Arizona, although Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by about 2 percentage points even as Trump holds a slim edge in the state, with more than 60 percent of the expected vote reporting. One bright spot for Democrats: In Wisconsin's competitive seat, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin currently holds a lead of just under 1 percentage point with 99 percent of the expected vote reporting, even as Trump is projected to narrowly carry the state.

As we discussed in our introduction to the Senate forecast in October, the GOP is going to have a good shot at retaining this majority, too, unless Democrats can win in some places where they've come up short in recent years. In 2026, Republicans are only defending one seat in a state that Trump looks likely to lose in this election (Maine), while only a couple of other seats are in red states that perhaps could be competitive in a midterm cycle (North Carolina and, at least based on 2018, Texas). Then in 2028, Democrats have to defend swing-state or potentially competitive seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the GOP will only be defending two seats that year that look potentially endangered based on their recent history: North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Some things will inevitably change based on the public's response to the next Congress and Trump's second term as president. Democrats may have opportunities we don't currently see. But if Republicans end up with 55 or more seats after this election, that will be their largest majority since they reached the 55-seat mark in the 2004 election.