Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to move into the White House and Republicans are set to control the Senate and the House, the GOP is poised to consider several wide-ranging reforms — including on education. It's no different on the state level, where Republicans will enjoy full control of 23 state governments. And in one state in particular — Texas — the 2024 elections may have enabled Republicans to pass school choice, which has become a key part of the GOP platform on education.

Republicans have long dominated Texas politics. They have had a state government trifecta — control of the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature — since 2003. They currently have a 19-12 majority in the state Senate and an 86-63 majority in the state House. But in recent years, they have repeatedly failed to enact any kind of school choice measure. According to a recent statement by Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the state Senate has passed school choice legislation five times since 2015. "It died in a Republican-controlled House each time. That is unacceptable and inexcusable," Patrick wrote.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott named school choice a top priority in the 2023 legislative session. Both the Senate and House introduced bills that would create education savings accounts for students to use on private school tuition or alternative schooling and other education-related costs. But, at the end of the year, the House voted 84-63 to remove ESAs from House Bill 1 — a massive education bill that also included teacher raises and increased public school funding — bringing Abbott's yearlong effort to a halt.

Twenty-one Republicans — mostly from rural areas* — joined 63 Democrats in voting to kill ESAs, and Abbott immediately began a full-court press to oust them. By the time the primaries rolled around in March, Abbott had spent $4.4 million to defeat these Republicans and repeatedly visited their districts to endorse their opponents. According to Politico, Texas's 2024 primaries for state legislature cost a lot more than the typical amount due to the involvement of pro-school-choice donors. In fact, Abbott received more than $6 million from billionaire investor Jeff Yass, a vocal supporter of school choice.

Abbott didn't campaign against every Republican who voted against the ESAs, but of the 10 that he targeted, seven lost their primaries. Another lost because he was targeted by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (for voting in favor of his impeachment) and pro-voucher groups. And one advanced to a May runoff, only to see Abbott endorse his challenger, who eventually won the seat. Another five did not seek reelection. In total, out of the 21 Republican representatives who voted against ESAs in 2023, 14 will not be returning to the legislature next year. And their replacements were all endorsed by Abbott.**

In addition, in last week's general election, Democrats lost two state House seats, District 80 and District 34, to GOP school-choice proponents.

Add it all up, and Abbott now appears to have the votes to get ESAs or a similar program through the state House. "Counting what I call only true hardcore school choice proponents, there are 79 votes in favor in the Texas House. It takes 76 votes to get it passed," he said at a public appearance at a Christian private school the day after the election.

That means that Texas could pass school choice legislation as early as January or February 2025. Texas's legislative session begins Jan. 14, and while normally new bills can't pass within the first 60 days of the session, Abbott could name school choice an "emergency item" to allow it to pass sooner.

Footnotes

*This isn't too surprising; rural Republicans all across the country have spoken out against using public funds to pay for private schools because public schools are central to their communities for jobs and education.

**While Abbott did not publicly support one of these candidates in the primaries, he did eventually endorse her before the general election against her Democratic competitor.