Top Threats for 2008: A Lot Like Top Threats for 2007

Feb. 5, 2008— -- In an echo of earlier threat assessments, the nation's top spy chief said Tuesday al Qaeda still poses "significant threats" to the United States.

In fact, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell's report to Congress Tuesday found numerous points of very close agreement with that of his predecessor, John D. Negroponte.

At 47 pages, McConnell's 2008 threat assessment report is more than three times longer than Negroponte's. But a side-by-side comparison of the documents shows some of the men's top concerns for U.S. national security are nearly identical, word for word.

In this year's report, McConnell stated that "al-Qa'ida and other terrorist groups are attempting to acquire chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons and materials (CBRN)."

Negroponte, 2007: "we receive reports indicating that al-Qa'ida and other groups are attempting to acquire chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons and materials."

Both men also sounded the alarm that "the ongoing efforts of nation-states and terrorists to develop and/or acquire dangerous weapons and delivery systems constitute major threats to the safety of our nation, our deployed troops, and our friends."

"The time when only a few states had access to the most dangerous technologies has been over for many years," McConnell and Negroponte both observed.

The two men also railed against Iran and North Korea because both countries "flout U.N. Security Council restrictions on their nuclear programs."

The two men differed on the subject of Iran's nuclear ambitions, the topic of a controversial U.S. intelligence estimate late last year which concluded Iran had in 2003 halted its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Negroponte, writing before the estimate was released, wrote that "we assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons." McConnell, writing afterwards, stated "we remain concerned about Iran's intentions and assess... that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

Negroponte and McConnell both warned that Iran is "enhancing its ability to project its military power -- primarily with ballistic missiles and naval power," with the goal of "dominating the Gulf region and deterring potential adversaries." By disrupting Gulf shipping, the men agreed, Iran would be "potentially intimidating regional allies into withholding support for U.S. policy."

The topic of China brought another point of agreement between the two, who agreed that implementation of President Hu Jintao's domestic agenda will "require a major shift of resources to the countryside, greater accountability of provincial leaders to Beijing, and stronger efforts to root out" corruption.

At least nine passages appear verbatim, or nearly so, in both Negroponte's 2007 assessment and McConnell's report delivered to Congress today, an ABC News analysis found.

"If it hasn't changed, it hasn't changed," a spokesman for McConnell said when asked about the similarities between the assessments. "If the situation hasn't changed from last year, [the assessment] hasn't changed."

But copying the previous year's work hasn't been the usual practice, according to a former intelligence official who helped prepare earlier assessments.

"I don't recall any time when we recycled stuff word for word," said the official, who asked not to be quoted by name. "There were times when there wasn't a huge change...But, word for word?"

"They only have 1500 bureaucrats at the DNI's shop," he needled, referring to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. "You can't expect them to do new work."

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