Job Forecast Partly Cloudy

Jan. 12, 2001 — -- There have been layoffs, cutbacks and closings. The stock market has sputtered, dot-coms have failed, and the president-elect has talked of a possible recession.

Bad time to look for a job, right? Not necessarily.

"If you had asked me that question in mid-December I would have said yes," says Trudy Steinfeld, director of New York University's Office of Career Services. "But things really seem to have settled down."

Layoffs have hit online workers at The New York Times and Fox News, and offline workers at Sears Roebuck and Montgomery Ward.

Times remain tense, with experts trying to read conflicting economic and employment statistics. But the government measure of unemployment held at 4.0 percent in December, and anecdotal evidence indicates the trend of an overall strong job market seems to be holding.

Those in the know say if you're a manufacturing worker, particularly an entry-level one, the tough times of the past couple of years will continue, and may get a bit worse. But if you work with computers, in finance or in health services, the coast remains clear — at least for now.

Recruiters Still Knocking on Dorm Doors

"Anecdotally, everything I'm hearing is still very positive," says Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager for the Pennsylvania-based National Association of Colleges and Employers, which gathers data from both college placement offices and businesses and publishes information about college graduates.

"I know there are rumblings of the economy slowing, but anecdotal information that I've received has not led me to any conclusions that college graduates are going to be suffering," Luckenbaugh adds.

At Columbia University, it's "business as usual," with "all the large investment banks banging on our doors to make reservations as to when they can come next fall," says Pat Macken, the university's director of employer relations.

Steinfeld, of NYU, says that despite a scare in December, her office seems to be busier than usual.

"I really felt, starting in December, that spring recruiting would be off as soon as we saw the fluctuations in the market," she says. "Four weeks later, a lot of those organizations that had held back on recruiting have made those reservations … meaning they are coming on campus to recruit. They have positions. They are going to be hiring."

Apprehension Over ‘Cloudy’ Picture

But the recent stock market fluctuations and news of layoffs, combined with ambiguous or incomplete government statistics for November and December, have some employment professionals slightly on edge despite word that companies are hiring.

"It's such a cloudy picture right now," says Jeff Joerres, CEO of Manpower Inc., a national job placement firm that surveys employers about employment trends.

The company's last survey, released in November, saw a sunny outlook for many job-hunters. A more recent survey is under way, and although employers continue to sound enthusiastic, Joerres sees potential for some trouble, particularly with blue-collar entry-level jobs. He expects overall unemployment to edge up slightly in coming months.

"I would definitely want to be in finance and insurance and things like that, not as much in manufacturing," he says. "But that's a very short-term view, because in most cases the better paying entry-level jobs are in manufacturing."

Manufacturing jobs declined by 178,000 in 2000, more than jobs in any other of the broad sectors measured by the government, according to Lois Plunkert, a senior economist for the current employment statistics program at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sector has been losing jobs since April 1998, and 2000's loss was particularly acute in auto, aircraft and apparel production.

Overall, however, non-farm job growth continued in 2000 — rising by 1.5 percent, slightly short of 1999's 2.2 percent growth rate.

Unemployment stayed low, however, perhaps because "mass layoffs" of 50 employees or more at a time seemed under control for much of last year. There was a possibly ominous spike in November (see web link), but unless December turns out to be even worse, it appears the number of employees who fell victim to such mass layoffs will be down overall in 2000, according to Lewis Siegel, a senior economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics who monitors the layoff numbers.

Don’t Cry For Dot-Commers

Despite recent bad publicity about failing dot-com companies, life still can be sweet for computer programmers, technicians and designers. Employment professionals say older techies may have lost their jobs in dot-com shakeouts, but they had little trouble landing on their feet at larger companies, which appear to be snapping them up as fast as they can get them.

"The people who were displaced with the failure of the dot-coms got absorbed very quickly," says Paul Harty, East Coast district manager for Stride & Associates, an information technology placement firm that runs the Internet job site, TechieGold.com.

"We have not seen an extension of the time from when that person walks into our door until we place them," he adds. "I still think that in IT [information technology], where the market is particularly competitive, … a candidate can walk into our office and we can probably, within 48 hours, have them out to eight companies and have two or three offers for them."

Younger computer workers seem non-plussed by the dot-com failures. In fact, college placement officials report that students with computer backgrounds are increasingly turning their noses up at stock options and other enticements from smaller dot-com companies, preferring larger, more stable companies instead.

In 2000, computer services powered the larger "business services" sector, which saw more job growth than any other sector, according to Plunkert.

The number of jobs in the computer services sub-sector grew by 5.6 percent in 2000, with 105,000 jobs added. In 1999, there were 158,000 additional jobs in the area, but that number may have been inflated by employees combating the Y2K bug, Plunkert said.

She added however, that although business services was tops in job growth in 2000, the number of new jobs in the area — which also includes janitorial services, security services and temporary workers — declined to 254,000 from 628,000 in 1999.