Consumer Confidence Stable for Sixth Week
Aug. 1, 2006— -- Consumer confidence continues to hold its own in the face of $3 gasoline, suggesting that Americans are finding ways to accommodate to the high price of fuel.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -10 on its scale of +100 to -100 this week, essentially unchanged. It's stayed between -9 and -11 for six weeks straight, while gas has gained 13 cents a gallon to reach an average price of $3 a gallon.
A separate, recent ABC News poll found that many people are dealing with the high price of gas by spending less on other goods. A Commerce Department report Tuesday confirmed that, finding a smaller than usual 0.4 percent rise in consumer spending in June.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 61 percent rate their finances positively, four points above the long-term average. Thirty-nine percent say the economy is in good shape, and 35 percent call it a good time to buy things, at or near their 2006 and long-term averages.
TREND -- The index peaked this year at -7 in March and again in April before dropping to a low of -19 in May. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +29 among higher-income Americans while -65 among those with the lowest incomes, +4 among college graduates while -53 among those who haven't finished high school, -7 among whites but -38 among blacks and +6 among men while -25 among women.
Regionally, the index is best in the West, at +6, compared with -13 to -17 elsewhere. Confidence continues to vary widely by political affiliation: The index is +24 among Republicans, but -19 among independents and -34 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-nine percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 38 percent last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty-one percent say their own finances are excellent or good; 60 percent said so last week. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, the same as last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended July 30, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.