Consumer Confidence Up, but Still Lags
Sept. 6, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence has rebounded this week, perhaps buoyed by easing gasoline prices.
Amid income stagnation and soft housing and jobs markets, however, it's still below average heading into the post-Labor Day congressional election season.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index advanced four points this week to -15 on its scale of +100 to -100, wiping away most of last week's five-point drop.
The gyrations could stem from competing economic data -- some negative reports countered by lower gasoline prices, down 12 cents this week and 31 cents in the last month to an average $2.73 per gallon in the latest federal survey.
At -15 the index is below its long-term average, -9.
It's not far from its Labor Day level after the 2002 midterm election (-13) but much worse than in 1998 (+29).
It's better than at this stage in 1994, when Republicans won control of both houses of Congress.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate, and their personal finances. Thirty-five percent say the national economy is in good shape, compared with a long-term average of 40 percent. Thirty-three percent call it a good time to buy things; the average since December 1985 is 38 percent. And 59 percent rate their own finances positively, nearer its average, 57 percent.
TREND -- The CCI bottomed out this year at -19 in May and again last week, and peaked at -7 in March and April. It held between -9 and -11 in July before sliding last month.
The index's all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +25 among higher-income Americans while -66 among those with the lowest incomes; -6 among college graduates while -43 among those who haven't finished high school; -10 among whites but -46 among blacks; and -2 among men while -26 among women.
The index continues to be best in the West, at +7, compared with -11 in the South, -26 in the Northeast, and -33 in the Midwest. A strong political element continues as well, with Republicans far more sanguine about the economy (a CCI of +28), independents far less so (-23), and Democrats more disgruntled still (-34).
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-five percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-nine percent say their finances are excellent or good; it was 57 percent last week. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 32 percent last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended Sept. 3, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.