Economic Pessimists Outnumber Optimists
Sept. 19, 2006 — -- Half of Americans think the economy's getting worse while only 14 percent think it's improving, a sharply negative assessment that's held roughly steady since midwinter.
Assessments of current economic conditions, meanwhile, are stable and below their long-term average. The latest ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -15 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared to its average -9 in weekly surveys since late 1985. It's been between -13 and -15 since mid-August, apart from a dip to -19 Aug. 27.
The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the current national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 37 percent say the national economy is in good shape and 34 percent call it a good time to buy things. As usual more, 57 percent, rate their own finances positively, matching its long-term average.
DIRECTION -- Separately each month the ABC/Post poll measures expectations -- whether people think the economy is getting better, worse or holding steady. Since February, about half have said it's getting worse -- 50 percent in this poll, ranging from 47 to 56 percent since Feb. 12. Far fewer say it's improving -- 14 percent now, and a range since midwinter of 14 to 19 percent.
As with the overall index, there's a vast partisan gap on this question, with independents siding somewhat more with Democrats. Seventy percent of Democrats say the economy's getting worse, as do 50 percent of independents; only three percent and 12 percent in these groups, respectively, think it's improving. Among Republicans, by contrast, just 26 percent think the economy's getting worse, and 29 percent think it's improving.
TREND -- The index has ranged this year from a low of -19 in May and again in late August to a high of -7 in March and April. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +25 among higher-income Americans while -59 among those with the lowest incomes, -2 among college graduates while -47 among those who haven't finished high school, -11 among whites but -41 among blacks and -6 among men while -23 among women.
The index continues to be best in the West, at -2, compared with -7 in the South, and -28 in the Northeast and Midwest alike.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-seven percent say their own finances are excellent or good, also unchanged. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-four percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 36 percent last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended Sept. 17, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents Sept. 6-17; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.