Consumer Confidence Stays Flat
Oct. 3, 2006 — -- Despite falling gas prices and a strong stock market, consumer confidence held essentially steady this week. One factor: strong partisanship five weeks before Election Day.
The latest ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100, virtually unchanged from last week and about at its average so far this year, -12.
While gas prices continue to drop and the stock market is reaching record highs, other economic reports are less positive, including a cooling housing market and slower income growth. The mixed data open the door to partisanship. The index is +29 among Republicans, but -20 among independents and -37 among Democrats. That 66-point gap between the two major parties is more than double the average gap since 1990.
The index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 40 percent say the economy's in good shape, matching the long-term average; and 35 percent call it a good time to buy things, compared with an average 38 percent.
More, 55 percent, say their own finances are in good shape, but that's down six points in the last two months. While ratings are up five points among Republicans, they're down six points among Democrats and 13 points among independents.
TREND -- The index has ranged this year from a high of -7 in March and April to a low of -19 in May and late August. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992. As noted, it's averaged -12 so far this year. Its average since December 1985 is -9.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +39 among higher-income Americans while -62 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -43 among those who haven't finished high school, -8 among whites but -45 among blacks and -2 among men while -23 among women.
At -3, the index is best in the West. It's -10 in the South, -19 in the Midwest and -24 in the Northeast.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good; 56 percent said that last week. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; 37 percent said that last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended Oct. 1, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.