Consumer Confidence Holds at '06 High
Oct. 24, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence holds steady at its highest level of the year, staying well above its 2006 low reached less than two months ago.
The latest ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged from last week to match its best of the year. The index is up eight points since mid-September, and 12 points since matching its worst level of the year on Aug. 27. Gas prices have dropped 64 cents in that time.
Two weeks before Election Day, that should be good news for the Republicans. But a separate ABC/Post poll released this week found that the economy was not bringing Republicans much in the way of votes. The economy trails Iraq as the top voting issue, and even those who do call the economy the most important issue in their vote broadly favor the Democratic candidates in their districts.
One reason the economy doesn't have more clout is because the gains are not evenly spread. In the separate ABC/Post poll, 24 percent say they're getting ahead financially, but as many, 23 percent, say they're falling behind, and most, 52 percent, are simply maintaining their standard of living, not improving it. Both those falling behind and those in the big middle group favor the Democrats in their districts.
Moreover, among independents -- the quintessential swing voters -- the CCI is just -19, near its level among Democrats, -25. It's a much higher +33 among Republicans.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. Forty-two percent rate the economy positively, compared with an average 38 percent this year and 40 percent overall. Thirty-eight percent call it a good time to buy things, matching the long-term average. And 60 percent say their own finances are in good shape, compared with an average 58 percent this year and 57 percent in polls since 1985.
TREND -- The CCI has been this high only three other times this year -- last week, once in April and once in March. It's been as low as -19 in August and in May. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992. It's averaged -12 so far this year and -9 since December 1985.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +46 among higher-income Americans while -52 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -31 among those who haven't finished high school, -2 among whites but -42 among blacks and +10 among men but -23 among women.
The index is lower in the Northeast (-23) than it is in the South (0), West (-3) or Midwest (-9).
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-two percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; 43 percent rated it so last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty percent say their own finances are excellent or good; 59 percent said so last week. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-eight percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; 37 percent said so last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended Oct. 22, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.