Confidence Steady After Last Week's Jump
Nov. 7, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence held steady this week at its best level in nearly three years.
The question this Election Day is whether it's good enough to lessen the public's broad discontent, fueled by concern about the war in Iraq.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -3 on its scale of +100 to -100, matching its best since January 2004. That's six points better than the long-term average, and eight points better than average so far this year.
But the economy is not the main issue on the public's mind. In a separate ABC/Post poll this weekend, 31 percent of registered voters called the war in Iraq the top issue in their vote, more than the 21 percent who cited the economy. And economy voters broke by 54 percent to 42 percent for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district.
That's not necessarily surprising. A bad economy is political poison, but a good one, much less a great one, doesn't reliably benefit the president's party. Indeed, 59 percent of registered voters still say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and just 40 percent approve of the president's job performance -- the fewest heading into a midterm election since 1950.
Moreover, there's a huge level of partisanship in current economic assessments. The ABC/Post index is +38 among Republicans, but -22 among Democrats. Independents are in the center at -7. That's an improvement -- the index is now the best it's been among independents since December 2004.
It was -19 among independents just two weeks ago.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate, and their personal finances. This week 64 percent say their own finances are in good shape, the most since October 2001. Forty-four percent rate the economy positively -- four points above average -- and 38 percent call it a good time to buy things, matching the average since this weekly poll began in December 1985.
TREND -- The CCI is 16 points better than its 2006 low, -19, reached in May and again in August, and, as noted, eight points above its average so far this year. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +43 among higher-income Americans while -53 among those with the lowest incomes, +14 among college graduates while -35 among those who haven't finished high school, +5 among whites but -37 among blacks, and +8 among men while -12 among women.
The index is +5 in the South, compared with -4 in the West, -7 in the Northeast and -8 in the Midwest.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-four percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty-four percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 63 percent last week. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-eight percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, unchanged from last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended Nov. 5, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.