Consumer Confidence Steady Near 2006 High
Nov. 21, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence paused from its labors this week, holding steady at a comparatively high level in the weekly ABC News/Washington Post poll.
The ABC/Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at 0 on its scale of +100 to -100, well up from a recent low of -19 in late August. It's blown by its 2006 average (-11) and its long-term average (-9 in weekly polls since December 1985) in its recent surge.
Mild inflation, higher wages, lower oil and gasoline prices and a strong stock market all have accompanied the recent rise in confidence. It may prove a happy convergence for retailers, with the traditional start of the holiday shopping season just ahead.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the economy, buying climate and their personal finances. This week 65 percent say their own finances are in good shape, 45 percent rate the economy positively and 40 percent call it a good time to buy things, respectively eight, 12 and eight points more than at the index's recent low in late August.
Ratings of personal finances are especially strong -- same as last week at their best since Oct. 7, 2001.
TREND -- The index is 19 points above its low for the year, reached in May and August amid soaring gasoline prices. Its all-time high was +38 in the go-go days of January 2000; its record low, a recession-inspired -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +55 among higher-income Americans while -58 among those with the lowest incomes, +16 among college graduates while -33 among those who haven't finished high school, +8 among whites but -35 among blacks and +8 among men while -7 among women.
The index is +10 in the West, +7 in the Northeast, 0 in the South and -15 in the Midwest.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-five percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 46 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good, unchanged. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Forty percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, unchanged. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Nov. 19, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.