Confidence Levels After Three-Month Advance
Dec. 5, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence held essentially steady this week, leveling after a sharp three-month increase that lifted it to its highest level in 4½ years.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -1 on its scale of +100 to -100; it's remained basically flat the last three weeks, between +1 and -1, after soaring from -19 on Aug. 27.
While the pause may cause some concern, the index has risen smartly: Positive ratings of the buying climate are up 11 points in the last three months; the national economy, also up 11 points; and personal finances, up 5 points -- just in time for the holiday shopping season.
TREND -- The index has been much stronger -- a high of +38 in January 2000 -- as well as much weaker, a low of -50 in February 1992. But it's above its long-term average, -9 in weekly polls since December 1985, and 18 points above its low for this year, reached in May and again in August amid soaring gasoline prices. It's averaged -10 so far this year.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +46 among higher-income Americans while -28 among those with the lowest incomes, +14 among college graduates while -37 among people who haven't finished high school, +7 among whites while -54 among blacks and +5 among men while -6 among women.
The index this week is strongest, +23, in the West, and weakest, -18, in the Midwest. It's -4 and -2 in the Northeast and South, respectively.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-four percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty-two percent say their own finances are excellent or good; 64 percent said that last week. The highest percentage who said their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Forty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; 44 percent said that last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results come from telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks that ended Dec. 3, 2006. ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa., conducted the field work.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.