Consumer Confidence: Rebounds Slightly
Jan. 16, 2007 — -- Consumer confidence rebounded slightly this week after a shaky start to the year, though it remains short of the 2006 high it reached in mid-December.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -2 on its scale of +100 to -100, reversing a three-week slide to a two-month low of -5 last week. While outside the elusive positive zone, it's above both its 2006 average (-10) and its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985 (-9).
This week's slight rebound coincides with easing gasoline prices -- this week's eight-cent per-gallon drop in the U.S. Department of Energy survey was the largest weekly drop since the end of September -- and a strong stock market.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 46 percent rate the national economy positively -- close to its recent five-year high of 48 percent, reached four weeks ago, and six points above the long-term average.
Sixty-two percent rate their personal finances positively, five points over the long-term average. (It hit 65 percent in mid-November, the most since August 2001.) And 39 percent call it a good time to buy things, about matching its average.
TREND -- A rally in the last quarter of 2006 lifted the index into the positive range, from its 2006 low of -19 on Aug. 27 to +1 in November and December. That trend flattened, then turned south before this week's slight gain.
The CCI is a long way from its best days, an average of +29 in 2000 (peaking at +38 in January 2000). But it's been vastly worse -- an average of -44 in 1992, bottoming out at -50 that February.
GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups -- far better, for example, among higher-income Americans, college graduates and whites. It's +2 among men while -7 among women -- a closer spread between the sexes than usual.
Huge partisan differences remain: The CCI is +36 among Republicans, but -12 among independents and -27 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-six percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 44 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty-two percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 61 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 37 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews from a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks preceding Jan. 7, 2007. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that same question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (everyone negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.