All ears turn to Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech Friday

NEW YORK -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech Friday morning in Jackson Hole, Wyo., is morphing into a modern-day E.F. Hutton-like moment on Wall Street.

Bernanke is expected to talk about what the Fed can do — and might do — next to help the economy grow at a peppier pace, and what might prompt it to act. Investors will listen for clues to help decipher if — and when — Bernanke would inject a new round of steroid-like stimulus into the economy.

The stakes are high. A big driver of the stock market's 10% summer rally has been hopes the Fed would ride to the rescue again and embark on its third round of quantitative easing (QE).

What Bernanke says and how investors interpret and decode his words may determine the short-term direction of stocks.

"Investors will be acting like extras in an old E.F. Hutton commercial straining to hear … what was said," says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. (The catchy TV ad slogan was, "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen.")

Since the financial crisis, investors have become addicted to the liquidity the Fed has funneled into markets via its bond-buying programs, which are designed to bring down interest rates and lower borrowing costs. Stocks have rallied sharply after each of the Fed's three major interventions, dubbed QE1, QE2 and Operation Twist, although the rallies have gotten smaller with each program.

There is a risk markets will be "disappointed" if Bernanke does not announce or strongly hint that a new stimulus program is on its way at Jackson Hole or when the Fed meets again in mid-September, says Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at R.W. Baird. "The Jackson Hole speech is the focus of attention," he says.

Still, Wall Street is not expecting Bernanke to commit to QE3 on Friday. The Fed has said repeatedly that it will take action if needed, but that its future moves are highly dependent on incoming economic data.

Given that recent data, ranging from retail sales to home sales and prices, have been upbeat, many analysts believe the Fed will defer any QE3 decisions until after the August employment report is released Sept. 7. If job creation is weak, the Fed will have more latitude to go forward with QE3.

The general consensus is the Fed will announce QE3 no earlier than its upcoming Sept. 12-13 meeting.

While Bernanke is unlikely to provide specifics or unveil a new program Friday, he is expected to lay out his case for why more stimulus is warranted and to communicate what tools the Fed has at its disposal and how effective they will be, notes David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.