Ask Matt: How can I profit on summer blockbuster movies?

— -- Q: How can investors score on the upcoming lineup of summer movies?

A: Now's the time to lay your bets down on summer movies.

The Avengers. Brave. Battleship. G.I. Joe: Retaliation. There's no shortage of big-name movies on the summer slate with great potential firepower.

Hopes are high for the summer 2012 season, says David Miller of Caris. The year is off to a blockbuster start, with the U.S. box office up 23.7% in the first quarter, Miller says. A big part of that gain was Lions Gate Entertainment's lgfHunger Games. The stock is up 42% this year, in large part, driven by the popularity of the movie.

"This is going to be an extraordinary summer" for box office numbers, says Matthew Harrigan of Wunderlich Securities. It's very possible U.S. box office numbers could be up 10% to 12% this year, he says.

But that doesn't mean explosive returns are waiting for investors in the big studio stocks. In fact, most investors recognize that the movie production businesses are very small portions of the large diversified entertainment giants such as Walt Disney dis, Viacom via, Time Warner twx and Sony sne, Miller says. Even the John Carter flop at Disney, which resulted in a $200 million write-down for the company, hardly registered with investors.

"The studios are cogs in the wheels for the very large companies," Miller says. "Disney never moves on studio economics at all," adding that the company's ESPN and Disney park businesses are more important to profits and the stock price.

There are also company-specific factors at play. Sony has a solid slate of movies coming, including Men in Black III and The Amazing Spider-Man, Harrigan says. But investors have much bigger concerns, including the company's struggling consumer electronics business, he says.

Lions Gate is the only significant pure play in the movie production business. And while the studio has promising movies in the works, nothing major is expected in the summer, Harrigan says. If G.I. Joe is a "breakout hit," it possibly could lift the stock, Miller says.

Meanwhile, most of Time Warner's big movies aren't scheduled to open until after the summer in the third or fourth quarters, Miller says. That includes The Hobbit and the next Batman movie, The Dark Knight Rises.

And that's why investors, looking to profit on the strong summer slate of movies, are most likely best off betting on the companies that own the theaters, not the companies that own the big studios, Miller says. Among the largest public theater companies are: Regal Entertainment rgc, Cinemark cnk and Carmike ckec.

"If the summer finishes up 10%," Miller says. "The theater stocks have a chance to make material gains."

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies and Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Follow Matt on Twitter at: twitter.com/mattkrantz