Consumer Confidence Ends Modest Advance
April 4, 2006— -- Consumer confidence did not continue its upward tick this week, as gas prices posted another increase in a string of rising prices.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index, based on views of current economic conditions, stands at -9 on its scale of +100 to -100, back to its month-ago level and matching its long-term average in weekly polls since December 1985.
Confidence had shown resilience in the face of rising energy prices recently, gaining six points from Feb. 19 to last week even as gas prices advanced 26 cents a gallon over that time period. But with the average price of gasoline jumping another 9 cents to $2.59 a gallon this week -- the highest since late October -- confidence might be taking a breather.
INDEX -- The weekly ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 42 percent rate the economy positively, and 36 percent call it a good time to buy things; more, 59 percent, say their personal finances are in good shape. All are within two points of their long-term averages.
TREND -- This year the index has been as low as -13 and as high as -7 just last week. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its all-time low was -50 in February 1992. As noted, its current -9 exactly matches its long-term average. It's above last year's average of -13 and very near this year's average so far of -10.
GROUPS -- The CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +37 among higher-income Americans while -64 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -34 among those who haven't finished high school, -4 among whites but -42 among blacks and +2 among men while -17 among women.
Regionally, at +6, the index is again this week highest in the West; it's -10 in the South, -12 in the Northeast and -15 in the Midwest. The CCI is +36 among Republicans but -18 among Independents and -32 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-two percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, while 41 percent did so last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-nine percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 60 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-six percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; 39 percent said so last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending April 2, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.