Confidence Matches its '06 Low
May 2, 2006— -- Consumer confidence matched its lowest level of the year this week, though it still hasn't dived as sharply as it did in the last gas-price spike late last summer.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100, down six points in the last two weeks. That's its biggest two-week drop since September 2005, just after Hurricane Katrina.
Now as then, high gas prices are the likely culprit. Although prices stabilized this week, regular unleaded is averaging $2.92 a gallon, its highest price since Oct. 3, 2005, and near its nominal high of $3.07 a month earlier.
The index, however, fell 16 points in five weeks to -23 late last summer, compared with its six-point drop to
-13 so far this spring. But other, positive economic factors, including a better-than-expected rise in personal incomes last month, are countering high gas prices.
INDEX -- The weekly CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 37 percent rate the economy positively, down five points in the last month, and 35 percent call it a good time to buy things. As usual, many more, 58 percent, say their own finances are in good shape.
TREND -- As noted, at -13, the CCI now matches its low for the year, last seen Feb. 19. It's been as high as -7 as recently as two weeks ago and has averaged -10 this year, about the same as its average since December 1985, -9. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its all-time low, -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +28 among higher-income Americans while
-45 among those with the lowest incomes, 0 among college graduates while -37 among those who haven't finished high school, -7 among whites but -52 among blacks and -3 among men while -22 among women.
Regionally, at -6, the index is best in the West, compared with -21 in the Northeast, -18 in the Midwest and -10 in the South. Confidence remains far higher among Republicans (+28) than among Independents
(-20) or, particularly, among Democrats (-40).
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-eight percent say their own finances are excellent or good; last week 59 percent said the same. The highest percentage was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; 36 percent said the same last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending April 30, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.