Consumer Confidence Near Seven-Month Low
June 6, 2006— -- Consumer confidence held steady this week, hovering near its lowest in seven months, consistent with high gas prices and weak job growth.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -17 on its scale of +100 to -100. It's stayed between -16 and -19 the past five weeks, a period in which gasoline prices likewise have held steady, albeit high, after jumping earlier in the spring.
The index had tied its 2006 high in mid-April, -7, before starting its descent. Gas is up more than 30 cents a gallon since early April, and nearly 80 cents higher than a year ago.
The Department of Labor last week reported 75,000 new jobs in May -- the weakest gains in employment since October, when the labor market took a hit after Hurricane Katrina. The department also revised downward its March and April job growth estimates.
INDEX -- The weekly ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and personal finances. This week 35 percent rate the economy positively, five points below the long-term average; 34 percent call it a good time to buy things, four points below average; and 55 percent say their own finances are in good shape, closer to the average, 57 percent.
TREND -- The CCI has averaged -12 so far this year, compared to its -9 since the weekly survey began in December 1985. Its all-time low stands at -50 in February 1992; its high, +38 in January 2000.
GROUPS -- As usual, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +36 among top-income Americans while -57 among those with the lowest incomes; +2 among college graduates while -51 among those who haven't finished high school; -10 among whites but -51 among blacks; and -8 among men while -25 among women.
Regionally, the index is -5 in the West compared with -19 to -22 elsewhere. It remains far higher among Republicans (+24) than among Independents (-24) or particularly among Democrats (-42).
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-five percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; 34 percent rated it so last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good; 57 percent said so last week. The highest percentage saying their finances were excellent or good was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-four percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; 33 percent said so last week. The highest percentage was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending June 4, 2006. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.