Inflation threatens global economy, IMF warns

— -- As if slow growth and a financial crisis weren't enough to worry about, the International Monetary Fund says inflation has emerged as a third major threat to the global economy.

In its latest assessment, the world body based in Washington, D.C., says first-quarter global growth downshifted to an annual rate of 4.1% from 5% last year. That was slightly better than expected, and the IMF now says both the U.S. and global economies will perform slightly better this year than it anticipated three months ago.

But tough times have only been delayed, it predicts: The IMF expects a significant slowdown during the remainder of this year before the global economy hopefully rebounds in 2009. Financial problems that began last year in the U.S. mortgage market are spreading economic weakness to Europe and Japan, it says. Even red-hot emerging markets such as China and India are slowing from an annual growth rate of 8% last year to 6.9% in 2008.

"The global economy is facing its most difficult set of circumstances in many years," says Simon Johnson, the IMF's chief economist.

A trifecta of slowing growth, "very fragile" financial markets, and resurgent inflation leaves policymakers with no easy answers. Rising prices are a global problem, affecting consumers from U.S. gas stations to Chinese food stalls. But inflation is especially acute in the fast-growing developing world, where it has reached an average of 8.6%.

Driven by surging oil and food costs, inflation in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Russia is expected to crest at an average of 9.1% this year before easing to 7.4% in 2009, the IMF says. A key risk is that officials in fast-growing developing countries won't do what is needed to cool off their economies, Johnson says. If they fail to act, the risk of a global recession in 2009 would rise.

Investment fund managers are turning sharply negative on emerging markets, says a Merrill Lynch survey. Those countries could be hit with a one-two punch: a global slowdown will reduce demand for their oil, metals and minerals while higher interest rates will dampen growth. That's "why asset allocators have become much more cautious," said Merrill's Michael Hartnett, chief emerging markets strategist.

Meanwhile, financial institutions in industrialized countries — battered by losses stemming from the U.S. housing debacle — remain weak. As they rebuild their balance sheets, they'll be hard pressed to make new loans. So credit will be tight, further squeezing growth.

"I think things are going to get worse before they get better," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of Global Insight in Waltham, Mass. "But both the U.S. and world economies are very resilient."