Stimulus uncertainty: How fast will the impact be?

WASHINGTON -- The goal of President Obama's $825 billion economic stimulus plan is to spend money fast. Some of his favorite proposals, however, will take years to have full impact.

Obama wants to spend $550 billion and cut taxes by $275 billion to jump-start the economy. The White House says 75% of it will go out this fiscal year or next, but a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) puts the figure at 64%.

More than half the money allocated for state grants, school renovations and beefed-up law enforcement would be spent after 2010, the CBO said. Two-thirds of the $30 billion in highway construction would be spent in later years, along with more than 80% of the nearly $30 billion to spur renewable energy, fix federal buildings and expand broadband Internet service.

Building military hospitals, barracks and day care centers will take seven years, the agency said. Water projects will continue throughout the next decade.

The pace of spending as well as the package's size has made it difficult for Republicans to support Obama on his first legislative effort. They complain that the package includes too much spending, not enough tax cuts and not enough jobs.

When Obama used patriotic terms to defend the inclusion of $200 million to spruce up the National Mall in a closed meeting Tuesday with House Republicans, Rep. Peter Roskam of Illinois told him he shouldn't "wrap yourself in the flag," according to Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn.

Republicans have pounced on that proposal, along with money for the National Endowment for the Arts and to help Americans convert to digital TV, as spending run amok. Obama agreed to remove expanded family planning, even though the CBO estimated it would save $700 million, to meet GOP objections.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs pushed back Tuesday after Obama's two meetings with House and Senate Republicans. "You can make a very credible case … that reconditioning the National Mall will create jobs, probably through spending in small businesses," he said.

However, late Tuesday, the $200 million appropriation for the Mall was dropped from the House bill, Politico reported.

The administration defends the longer-term proposals as necessary. "We also must look to the future and begin the process of reinvesting in priorities like clean energy, education, health care and infrastructure, so that the United States can enhance its long-term growth and thrive in the 21st century," White House budget director Peter Orszag said in a letter to House leaders.

Major portions of the stimulus package will infiltrate the economy quickly: additional unemployment benefits, health insurance, food stamps and student loans for low-income Americans, along with most of the tax cuts for individuals and businesses.

Those provide "a big bang for the buck," said Mark Zandi of Economy.com, a former adviser to Republican presidential candidate John McCain who advised Democrats on the stimulus plan. Other initiatives, Zandi said, "are things you would not include in a traditional stimulus plan."

In that category are some of Obama's campaign pledges, such as expanded broadband service and electronic medical records. The question: Will those create jobs in the next 18 months?

"It's going to be very hard," said Robert Reischauer, president of the liberal Urban Institute and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. He cited the need for environmental permits, building permits, peer reviews for research proposals and the like. "Everything takes time."

Brian Riedl of the conservative Heritage Foundation said much of the money won't spur productivity. The tax cuts, he said, will only mean $10 or $20 a week.

House Appropriations Chairman Dave Obey, D-Wis., said the goal is to act now and address problems later. During the Depression, he said, President Franklin Roosevelt "tried lots of things. We'll do the same thing."