Poll: Americans Say Economy Getting Worse

N E W  Y O R K, Aug. 18, 2004 -- — Economic optimism slipped slightly this month, with more Americans continuing to say the economy is getting worse than say it’s improving — a different view than President Bush expresses in his re-election campaign.

Monday Bush declared, “The economy is strong, it’s getting stronger.” In the latest ABC News/Money magazine survey, however, fewer than four in 10 say the economy’s in good shape, and fewer still, 24 percent, say it’s improving.

Those views are not necessarily awful for the president: Confidence is average, not worse. It was far weaker in the summer of 1992, when economic discontent pushed his father from office, and indeed remains better than it was in mid-June. But it’s not as rosy as the president’s comments would suggest, indicating he’s got some convincing to do.

OPTIMISM/PESSIMISM — Thirty-eight percent of Americans now say the economy’s getting worse; the 24 percent who say it’s improving is down slightly from 29 percent last month. Economic optimists haven’t outnumbered pessimists since January.

A bit of pessimism, however, is the norm for such views: The numbers today are very near their long-term average in nearly 250 ABC News and ABC/Money polls since 1981: Twenty-one percent optimistic, 38 percent pessimistic. And optimists today are double their number in August 1992.

PARTISANSHIP — Particularly in an election year, political partisanship strongly influences these views. Fifty-four percent of Republicans say the economy’s getting better, while just eight percent say it’s getting worse. Democrats for their part are three times more apt to say it’s worsening than improving. Independents divide about evenly.

In views of current economic conditions, similarly, Republicans are far more positive, Democrats far less so. The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, figured on a scale of +100 to -100, index stands at +37 among Republicans, -13 among independents and -38 among Democrats.

CURRENT VIEWS — Views of current economic conditions are also less bright than the president’s; well under half, 39 percent, rate both the national economy and the buying climate positively. More, however, 57 percent, say their own finances are good.

The ABC/Money index, based on these three measures, stands at -10 on its +100 to -100 scale, a scant point below its long-term average since late 1985. While the index is down four points in the last two weeks, it’s still better than it was just two months ago, -20, much less its level in August 1992, a deeply negative -43.

The index rose in late June and early July — and three positive economic reports based on July data were released Tuesday: Consumer prices, down for the first time in eight months; factory output, up 0.4 percent after falling in June; and housing starts, up 8.3 percent.

TREND — After falling to -20 in mid-June, the ABC/Money index gained 12 points in three weeks, then held stable throughout July. It reached its best level since early February two weeks ago before losing some ground last week.

The index peaked at +38 in January 2000 and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992. Its worst annual average was -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, its worst year since 1994. Its long-term average is -9; it’s averaged -12 so far this year.

GROUPS — Confidence, as usual, is best among better-off Americans. The index is +36 among higher-income people while -60 among those with the lowest incomes. It’s +5 among college graduates while -48 among high-school dropouts, -4 among whites but -49 among blacks and -1 among men while -18 among women.

Regionally, it’s better in the West (-6) and Midwest (-7) than in the Northeast and South (-12 in both).

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News/Money index:

NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-nine percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-seven percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 58 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-nine percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY — The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,000 interviews in the four weeks ending Aug. 15 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents Aug. 4-15; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC News/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABC News polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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