Silicon Insights: Highlights From CES

Jan. 25, 2002 -- For gadget freaks like me, the idea of nirvana is the annual Consumer Electronics Show. It's held each January in Las Vegas, where 100,000 people converge to see what techno-toys will be hot in the coming year.

Yes, Comdex is the better show to attend if you are a business user of technology, but with more than 2,000 vendors spread over 1.2 million square feet and lots of loud sound systems, the CES shines like no other.

Sharp, NEC, Panasonic, Samsung and a host of major consumer elecvtronics players crank up their sound systems as they show off the latest and greatest televisions, stereos, camcorders, VCRs and just about everything else that fits into the category of consumer electronics.

My favorite exhibits are the custom cars with new auto sound systems, the ones with the giant woofers in the trunk that, when turned up, cause your bones to vibrate.

And I start drooling when I see full entertainment systems showing up in these auto systems, with built-in VCRs and DVDs to keep the kiddies entertained in the back while the parents run their errands.

But kidding aside, the CES is a serious platform for the $100 billion-plus industry to showcase its future trends. And judging from the new products on hand, consumer electronics is set for a very good year, barring any major economic or terrorist-related catastrophes.

The Big Picture

Perhaps the most important trend at this year's CES was evidence that we are rapidly moving toward a digital world where just about all consumer electronic products will be digitally based.

The move away from analog technology was made clear by the many flat-panel, digital, high-definition-ready television displays. In fact, just about everybody I talked to at the show was stunned by the 40- and 50-inch flat-panel plasma screens that all the major consumer electronics vendors where showing off.

I was especially struck by the quality and clarity of the plasma screens by Sharp. The picture was so clear that it looked as if the viewer was almost inside the scenes.

Unfortunately, with price tags well over $10,000, these screens are still very expensive. But over time most will cost under $2,000 and clearly become hot products in the digital home of the future.

Coming to the Very Small Screen

The other viewing technology that caught my eye was the new 2-square-inch organic light emitting diode, or OLED, screen by Sanyo that is amazingly bright and sharp despite its size.

OLED screens will eventually be on PDAs and cell phones, enabling them to handle full-motion video someday.

Speaking of wireless, another hot trend was the use of 802.11 wireless technologies in home-networking products. Clearly, the 802.11b WiFi standard is quickly becoming the home-networking system of choice in the short term.

However, the even faster 802.11a wireless standard will someday supplant the current WiFi systems so that home networks can eventually take advantage of 802.11a's 56-megabyte speeds to deliver full-motion video throughout the home via wireless networks.

Calling All Satellites

The hot product driving the auto entertainment space was satellite radio.

Launched last year, the XM Satellite Radio service already has more than 25,000 subscribers paying $9.95 a month to get more than 100 channels of digital radio content over a satellite connection that can be accessed as they drive anywhere in the United States.

But, the competing Sirius Satellite Radio, also with more than 100 stations, will go live in February and should give the XM folks serious competition.

The last product that got a lot of attention was Danger's HipTop cellphone and PDA combo device. This new product is aimed at the 18- to 35-year-old bracket and emphasizes its ability to not only be a phone butalso handle instant messaging and textual Web browsing.

It fits on a person's belt, thus the HipTop designation, and although the $25 and up monthly fee is a bit steep, it is a device that shows a lot of promise.

Tim Bajarin is a consultant and leading computer industry analyst and futurist, covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. He's based in Campbell, Calif.