20 Years of the PC: A Look Back

Aug. 9, 2001 -- Where has the time gone?

It seems like only yesterday that I would be flying off to Boca Raton, Fla., every other week, where I was working as a consultant to the original International Business Machines PC marketing group.

A small band of IBM executives, led by Don Estridge and Bill Lowe, dared to buck the establishment within IBM and convinced then-IBM chief executive officer John Akers to let them create a PC in the midst of a company known for their mainframes and mini-computers.

When others within IBM heard of the project, they just laughed at this band of rebels as they considered a PC a toy or hobbyist machine. To IBM insiders, a computer needed a lot of muscle and power and PCs were poorly equipped to do anything serious in a world dominated by what was known then as "big iron," or the powerful mainframes and minis of those days.

I had the privilege of getting to know many of those original mavericks who led IBM into the PC era screaming and kicking and, in the end, made IBM an even greater powerhouse in the world of computing, while changing the way people work in the process. All of them were IBM "lifers," but they had an entrepreneurial spirit and a vision for what the PC could be.

Modest PC Forecast Missed the Mark

Ironically, although they had a grand vision, their conservative nature was revealed in the original business plan for the PC, in which they forecasted that IBM would only sell 250,000 PCs in total over the lifetime of the program. They sold that many in the first six to nine months.

At the time, the first commercial PC was already on the market, the Apple II, and thanks to a program called VisiCalc, the first personal computer spreadsheet, the Apple II was actually starting to find its way into business use.

But, in those early days, the Apple II was still considered a hobbyist machine, while IBM meant business. Consequently, when IBM introduced the PC in August of 1981, their product captured the attention of not only hobbyists but serious business users as well. Now, some 20 years later, over 600 million IBM PCs have been shipped worldwide and this personal computing tool has revolutionized the world of business from top to bottom.

I remember my first trip to IBM's PC headquarters in Boca Raton and being amazed at how organized they were when it came to creating, manufacturing and marketing the PC. My first project had to do with helping them forecast demand for PCs over a 5- to-10-year period and analyze future designs of the desktop PC. I also had the privilege of working with a stealth group within the PC division that was working on their first laptop, which finally came to market in 1987 and became the forerunner of their flagship ThinkPad laptops of today.

Although Compaq, Dell and many others have cloned the PC, and in some cases, overtaken IBM's prominence in major markets, IBM was clearly the creative force behind the first major PC and its commercial success, and is still one of the top three vendors in the PC market today.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Over these 20 years, the world has changed dramatically. The Cold War is over, and Eastern Europe and China are now battlegrounds for PC vendors who plan to take personal computing to these markets that could use this technology to help them learn more effectively, as well as helping them become more efficient in business and communication.

The first major wave of personal computing represented productivity and is still a key reason why people buy a PC today. The second wave of computing was ushered in by the Internet, which expanded the use of a PC from productivity to one that gave people access to a world of interpersonal communication, information, products, business tools and services that has reshaped the way people work, learn and play.

But while some think the PC has lost its luster and is on its last legs, I have a different view of what the PC will be in the future. In fact, I believe we are about to enter the third wave of the PC revolution and it is one in which the PC will continue to play a critical role in business and the home.

The first role of the PC will be that of a hub for the digital lifestyle. The PC is the most flexible digital tool we have and will be important for managing and mixing disparate digital "stuff" in the future. It will continue to be the main tool for mixing and ripping digital music, managing and storing digital images, and eventually mixing and managing video content.

One Word: Videophone

However, I believe that the most important role of the PC in the future will be that of delivering the videophone to the home. Over time, as bandwidth is built out and higher speeds of Internet access become available, and with more powerful processors in next generation personal computers, the PC becomes the platform for delivering the videophone to business and consumers.

Think back over the last 20 years. We have already seen the major role the PC has played when it comes to communication. Although the killer app in the first days of the PC was the spreadsheet and the word processor, even during that time online message boards and early forms of e-mail expanded the role of a PC dramatically in that first phase of the PC revolution.

The killer app in the age of the Internet has been e-mail and Internet chat. Interestingly, many PC vendors think that the reason we will need a more powerful PC will be to deliver greater video that can be used in education and entertainment.

While that is true, I believe the videophone, where people will be able to talk to each other face-to-face from the far corners of the world, will be every bit as important. It will take time to build out high-speed access in the US and the rest of the world, but you can be sure that as greater bandwidth becomes available, the move to turn a PC into the videophone will be right around the corner.

So, it is with great fondness that I personally bid the IBM PC a Happy Birthday! I got to see it right after it was born and have followed it and the PC market very closely ever since. I am very thankful for a tool that let me chuck my old typewriter and reams of carbon paper that, during college, made creating term papers a nightmare. And for all the other digital things it lets me do that allows me to be more creative, productive and efficient.

Happy 20th Birthday to the IBM PC, to the original team and to the thousands of workers in the hardware and software industries who have made the PC a big part of our current digital lifestyle.

Tim Bajarin is a consultant and leading computer industry analyst and futurist, covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. He's based in Campbell, Calif.