Cramer: Waiting for a President

N E W   Y O R K, Nov. 13, 2000 -- — We are in the midst of the single most dramatic price-to-earnings multiple crusher I can ever recall, and I’m including Nixon’s resignation.

Everyone, from the banker in Malaysia to the retail buyer in Japan, likes our stocks less because of the political turmoil. Everyone.

It’s creating an atmosphere of such total indecision that, frankly, I’m amazed at how well our markets have been holding up. In fact, I think the only reason they haven’t fallen further is the expectation by some that Al Gore will throw in the towel, sparking a huge rally.

No Room for BullishnessIn the meantime, the confidence of the country gets sapped, the enthusiasm for equities squelched and the desire to buy overwhelmed by the desire to sell.

I took Thursday and Friday off to play with my girls and their grandfather in Philadelphia, checking in haphazardly as I did. (From a Dave & Busters, most of the time, as the kids played computer reality games.) I felt like the gambling machines at Dave & Busters made more sense than the market and was somewhat thrilled that I didn’t have to be in the office. I can’t recall any other time in my life that I’ve felt that way because none of the patterns I cherish so much made any sense. The uncharted waters of this market make everything seem like a roll of the dice.

Put simply, my bullishness rested on a rock-bottom belief that the indecision of the election would be over and we would be able to concentrate on the fundamentals. Instead, the fundamentals are being brought down by the indecision.

I search for reasons to be bullish in this national political vacuum and come up with nothing until this price-to-earnings multiple contraction game is over. And that can only end with an end to the challenges in the national election. You tell me when they end, I’ll tell you what I’m buying. Until then, there isn’t anything to do.

You can’t “invest” in a crapshoot.

Those who do are simply kidding themselves.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Cisco. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.