ABCNews' Holiday Movie Roundup
Dec. 1, 2006 — -- It all comes down to the final minutes in football, basketball, hockey … and in Hollywood.
Tinseltown suffered a miserable 2005, with box office revenue dipping below $9 billion for the first time since 2001.
This year -- even without a high number of blockbusters -- studio execs expect more than a lump of coal in their stockings.
It's crunch time.
From Thanksgiving to New Year's Day, Hollywood takes in roughly 22 percent of its box office revenue. It's also when Oscar hopefuls hit the screen.
"We've definitely have something to be happy about," said Paul Dergarabedian of Exhibitor Relations Co., the industry's pre-eminent box office tracking firm. "It's not the number of blockbusters we've seen this year as much as it is the smaller films that surprised, like 'Little Miss Sunshine' and 'The Illusionist.' People are just more excited about going to the movies."
To be sure, 2006 isn't a complete turnaround. Ticket sales are 4 percent ahead of last year, yet they're still 6 percent behind 2004.
And while some of the biggest films of 2006 have yet to be released, there are no guaranteed blockbusters, says Brandon Gray, president of Box Office Mojo.
"Last December, we had 'The Chronicles of Narnia' and 'King Kong,' and those were virtually guaranteed to do big business," Gray said. "This year, I don't see the one film that [is] a sure thing to generate $200 million plus."
Will Mel Be Forgiven?
The holiday movie season got off to a good start, with "Happy Feet" and the new James Bond film, "Casino Royale," exceeding expectations with high ticket sales. But even the biggest releases in December come with some major question marks.
"Dreamgirls," the star-studded musical featuring Beyonce and Jamie Foxx, is generating great buzz.
"This is the kind of movie people fall in love with," said Jeanne Wolf, critic at Movies.com. "At a movie screening, you rarely see industry people cheer and applaud so wildly. The only other movies that I saw something like this happening were 'Chicago' and 'Shakespeare in Love.'"
But musicals have spotty records.
It seemed like "Chicago" was going to usher in a new age of big screen song and dance. But subsequent releases, like "The Producers" and "Rent" were complete busts.
Moreover, "Dreamgirls" is only opening in limited release in December. Even if it's a success, the majority of moviegoers won't even see the film until early next year.
"Apocalypto" is an even bigger question mark, given Mel Gibson's drunken-driving, anti-Semitic remark incident in the summer.
"Everyone who has seen it calls it a masterpiece," Wolf said. "But you have to wonder, how much his box office appeal will suffer, given what's happened."
Here's a rundown of Hollywood's most eagerly awaited openings:
Dec. 1
"The Nativity Story" -- Keisha Castle-Hughes, the little girl from "Whale Rider," is the Virgin Mary in this classic Bible story. This film already made history, as the first Hollywood feature to premiere at the Vatican. And even though Pope Benedict XVI didn't attend the screening, several Catholic leaders were among the 8,000 in attendance, and there were five standing ovations for Jesus, Mary and Joseph.
"10 Items or Less" -- Oscar winner and perennial nominee Morgan Freeman plays an actor prepping for a role as a supermarket manager. With his trademark mellifluous voice, Freeman pokes fun at his history of starring in crime thrillers. Freeman is also playing games with Hollywood marketing. Within 10 days of the film's release, his production company is making the film available by download.
Dec. 8
"Blood Diamond." -- An Oscar contender about the diamond cartels that ravaged Sierra Leone during a protracted civil war in the 1990s. Diamond merchants have been bracing for this film for months. Leonardo DiCaprio stars as a South African mercenary, with Djimon Hounsou ("In America") and Jennifer Connelly ("A Dangerous Mind").
"Apocalypto" -- You probably can't fill a U.S. theater with people who can speak the ancient Mayan dialect that's spoken in this film. Certainly, Mel Gibson is taking a chance. But that's what he did with "The Passion of the Christ," and that $370 million blockbuster became the highest-grossing subtitled film in box office history.
Has enough time past since his drunken, anti-Semitic tirade in Malibu?
One thing the Michael Richards tirade showed is that American consumers can be either very forgiving or very forgetful.
Sales of "Seinfeld" DVDs have actually soared since Richards' comedy club meltdown.
"The Good German" -- George Clooney follows up "Good Night, and Good Luck" with another black-and-white slice of history. This time, he's a World War II era news reporter covering the Potsdam conference between Churchill, Stalin and Truman. This Steven Soderbergh film, however, is a murder mystery, featuring Cate Blanchett and Tobey Maguire.
"The Holiday" -- In this Christmas chick flick, two single gals from across the Atlantic -- Kate Winslet and Cameron Diaz -- swap apartments, where they are romanced by Jude Law and Jack Black. … Jack Black? Yep.
Dec. 15
"Dreamgirls"-- How much do you want to see "Dreamgirls"? Would you pay $25 for an early screenings? A few early showings will be available for moviegoers willing to pay the price. With Oscar winner Jamie Foxx, Grammy winner Beyonce Knowles, and "American Idol" wannabe Jennifer Hudson, this film has a large, built-in audience. But some are saying that the real story will be Eddie Murphy's comeback. Not coincidentally, Murphy is already in talks for another "Beverly Hills Cop" movie. Time to take Judge Reinhold out of Deepfreeze.
"Eragon" -- Can a healthy dose of dragons and sorcerers conjure up another "Harry Potter"? Based on Christopher Paolini's best-selling novel, "Eragon" stars Jeremy Irons and John Malkovich, with 18-year-old Edward Speleers looking to get his Hogwarts GED.
"The Painted Veil" -- Naomi Watts is a scientist's wife who experiments with cheating on her husband (Edward Norton). The movie is based on a E.M. Forster's novel, and the backdrop for this love triangle is China in the 1920s. And the other man is Liev Schreiber.
"The Pursuit of Happyness" -- Yes, they do spell it "Happyness." Will Smith is a salesman and single dad in San Francisco who's pulling his life together. Some say Smith might earn his second Oscar nominations for this performance. Thandie Newton plays Smith's clinically depressed ex-wife.
"Charlotte's Web" -- Why compete with an animated classic? Because now we have special effects to make real animals talk. Julia Roberts is the spider with a flair for words. Other voices are Robert Redford, John Cleese, Oprah Winfrey, Thomas Haden Church and Kathy Bates.
Dec. 22
"The Good Shepherd" -- Could this movie ever be spliced with Clooney's new movie and be called "The Good German Shepherd"? Robert De Niro directs this tale of early CIA skullduggery, featuring Matt Damon, Angelina Jolie, Joe Pesci, and, of course, De Niro.
"Night at the Museum" -- In Ben Stiller's holiday offering, he's a night guard at a museum where the exhibits come to life. He's chased by a T-Rex and trades barbs with a Teddy Roosevelt statue played by Robin Williams. To be sure, Stiller's BFF Owen Wilson is a pocket-size cowboy, ready to lend a helping hand.
"Rocky Balboa" -- The joke around Hollywood is that in Rocky's final fight, he'll battle incontinence. At 60, Sly Stallone is also gearing up for a "Rambo" movie next year. Yo, Adrian! I still got a job!
"We Are Marshall" -- Looking for a feel-good movie? This one might go down like a quart of eggnog. Matthew McConaughey plays the man hired by Marshall University after a 1970 plane crash kills the 75 members of the football team and coaching staff. David Straithairn of "Good Night, and Good Luck" plays the deceased coach he replaces. Feel good yet? This is, of course, based on a true story.
Dec. 25
"Children of Men" -- If you think the world is screwed up now, just wait until 2027, when humans can no longer reproduce. Clive Owen and Julianne Moore guard the last pregnant woman in hopes of saving our miserable species.
"Notes on a Scandal" -- Cate Blanchett is a high school teacher who has an affair with a student. The most seriously disturbing character might be Judi Dench, who plays her jealous older colleague.
Dec. 29
"Miss Potter" -- Renee Zellweger is children's author Beatrix Potter, and the buzz on this performance is that she'll be Oscar bound faster than Peter Rabbit outrunning Farmer McGregor's wife.