Emmys 2024 predictions: Who should win – and who will win
Film critic Peter Travers shares his predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
We all watched a lot of TV in the Emmy eligibility period that began on June 1, 2023, and ended on May 31, 2024. But who will actually win those golden trophies when the awards are broadcast live Sunday, Sept. 15, on ABC with hosts Eugene Levy and his son Dan Levy?
The competition is fierce, which is just the way we TV addicts like it.
"Shōgun" leads the pack for drama with 25 nominations, while "The Bear" is nipping at its heels with 23 nominations, the most nominations for a comedy series in one year, never mind that "comedy" hardly describes it.
Also among the top nominees are "Only Murders in the Building" (21 nods), "True Detective: Night Country" (19) and "The Crown" (18).
The numbers never tell the whole story since the most doesn't always mean the best. There's nothing like fighting for our favorites, comparing our judgement with the choices of the over 25,000 industry professionals who actually get to vote.
That's the fun of making predictions. So here are my picks in the major categories for what will win and what should win. Ready. Set. Go.
Outstanding drama series
SHOULD WIN: "Slow Horses" -- I've been saying since its debut in 2022 that Emmy attention must be paid to this ingeniously wicked and suspenseful British spy series about MI5 underdogs who win by being undervalued. The same goes for the show itself. Yet Emmy has consistently kicked this gem to the curb. No more. With season 4 having just debuted on Apple TV+, the slow horses of the TV academy have finally seen fit to nominate season 3 for the top prize, along with a criminally overdue salute to Gary Oldman for giving one of his best performances in any medium as the outrageously rude and unkempt spy master Jackson Lamb. It's about time.
WILL WIN: "Shōgun" -- The smart money is on this stunning historical drama featuring a predominantly Japanese cast to win everything. And it's hard to argue with the daring and dazzle in every detail of the acting, writing, directing and visual virtuosity on view in this fiercely faithful adaptation of the 1975 James Clavell novel that manages to be intimate and epic and unbeatable.
Outstanding lead actor in a drama series
SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman in "Slow Horses" -- For all the reasons enumerated above and for Emmy's crying need to recognize that Oldman has created one of the most unique and unforgettable characters in the history of television.
WILL WIN: Hiroyuki Sanada in "Shōgun" -- As Lord Yoshii Toranaga, one of the five Regents ruling Japan circa the 1600s on behalf of its young heir, Sanada caps a long and distinguished career in Japan and in such Hollywood hits as "Bullet Train" and "John Wick: Chapter 4." He also served as a producer on "Shōgun" to help ensure its authenticity. How do you beat that kind of commitment? You don't.
Outstanding lead actress in a drama series
SHOULD WIN: Anna Sawai ("Shōgun") -- There are partisans rooting for Imelda Staunton for her regal work in the final season of "The Crown," especially since Claire Foy and Olivia Colman, who played the monarch in her two younger incarnations, took home the gold. Not this time, I'm afraid. That speaks to the indisputable beauty and brilliance of Sawai as Lady Toda Mariko, the daughter of a disgraced samurai who converts to Catholicism and becomes the intermediary between her people and the barbarian Englishman Blackthorne (the rudely un-nominated Cosmo Jarvis), who she grows to love. Sawai is the soul of the series.
WILL WIN: Anna Sawai ("Shōgun") -- When the best contender is so clearly out front, there is no competition. Bet on Sawai to deservedly wear the Emmy crown.
Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series
SHOULD WIN: Jack Lowden ("Slow Horses") -- the Scottish actor gives a breakthrough performance as River Cartwright, the rebel MI5 agent abruptly shunted off to Slough House after a very public training-exercise blunder. Lowden gives his on-screen boss and co-star Gary Oldman a run for his scene-stealing money, making this a banner year for the up-and-comer. Talk about a star on the rise.
WILL WIN: Tadanobu Asano ("Shōgun") -- Jack Lowden has real competition in the scene-stealing sweeps from Asano as the scheming Lord Yabushige, he of the wicked, full-of-himself smile whether he's flirting with a courtesan or boiling an enemy to death. Expect him to ride the hugely popular "Shōgun" to Emmy glory.
Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series
SHOULD WIN: Elizabeth Debicki ("The Crown") -- Other actors have played Diana, Princess of Wales -- Emma Corrin preceded Debicki in the role on "The Crown" and Kristen Stewart earned an Oscar nomination for nailing the essence of the People's Princess in "Spencer." Still, no one digs deeper into the private side of Diana, especially in the scenes with her boys, William and Harry. Debicki aimed to show Diana finally gaining strength and purpose before tragedy struck. Mission beautifully accomplished.
WILL WIN: Elizabeth Debicki ("The Crown") -- Any other result would be an injustice.
Outstanding comedy series
SHOULD WIN: "Hacks" -- I can't argue that season 3 is the best season yet of this aces series about the comic misadventures of a legendary Vegas stand-up comic (Jean Smart) and the young comedy writer (Hannah Einbinder) who gets in her crosshairs. But...
WILL WIN: "The Bear" -- Season 2 hit an unmissable peak for this raging, roaring bonfire of a series -- the "Succession" of chef shows -- that took us inside the pressure cooker of a Chicago restaurant and the chef (Jeremy Allen White) running against the clock and the threat of financial ruin as he attempts to bring a beef sandwich shop upscale. Two caveats: 1. I've never figured out why or how Emmy sees "The Bear" as a comedy. (Did you see the holiday dinner episode with a never-better Jamie Lee Curtis as the matriarch of a family that rivals Greek tragedy for calamity?) 2. This is season 2 we're talking about. The divisive season 3 aired too late to qualify for this year's awards. And season 2 isn't just good, it's as good as TV ever gets.
Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series
SHOULD WIN: Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm") -- Some say that after 12 seasons spread across more than two decades of playing himself to smarta-- comic perfection that creator-star Larry David deserves an Emmy for his fiercely funny final season. Good point except...
WILL WIN: Jeremy Allen White ("The Bear") -- Some say that White already won an Emmy last year for playing the walking, talking stress magnet that is Chef Carmen "Carmy" Berzatto (pronounce that bear-zatto). True, but White does the impossible by being better, deeper and utterly undeniable by showing us sides of Carmy that sneak up and floor you. Is a second Emmy coming up? Yes, chef!
Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series
SHOULD WIN: Selena Gomez ("Only Murders in the Building") -- She's up against some killer competition, but I just want to celebrate the fact that the previously snubbed Gomez has finally joined her co-stars Steve Martin and Martin Short among the Emmy nominees where she belongs. That Gomez is also knocking it out of the park this year in the Oscar-buzzed "Emilia Pérez" is icing on the cake. She's on her way.
WILL WIN: Jean Smart ("Hacks") -- Somehow Smart gets better with each season. She's off-the-charts in the fabulous department. Smart will get real competition from Ayo Edebiri ("The Bear"), who won the supporting comedy Emmy last year but is now vying for the lead prize. Too soon? Maybe. But Smart is a star incarnate, her talent shining on its highest beams. After winning Emmys for her show's first two seasons, she's going for the trifecta. Who better?
Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series
SHOULD WIN: Ebon Moss-Bachrach ("The Bear") -- No competition here. If he did nothing more than the "Forks," the season 2 episode in which his character, the ever keyed-up Richie, gets a lesson in patience from Zen superchef Terry, played by Oscar winner Olivia Colman, the Emmy would be his. The details involved in drying forks and learning to peel mushrooms from the master chef at a Michelin-starred restaurant becomes a life-changing, transformative moment for Richie. You can see it all on his face. It's a master class in acting.
WILL WIN: Ebon Moss-Bachrach ("The Bear") -- No others need apply.
Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series
SHOULD WIN: Liza Colón-Zayas ("The Bear") -- In a category that includes legends Carol Burnett and Meryl Streep, Colón-Zayas makes an indelible, impactful impression as Tina Marrero, an acerbic and hard-headed Latina line cook who embraces the opportunity to learn from experts despite crippling moments of self doubt. If the Emmy eludes her this year, wait till "Napkins," the sixth episode of season 3, in which the miraculous Colón-Zayas distills a lifetime of struggle and perseverance into an hour of TV you will never forget.
WILL WIN: Hannah Einbinder ("Hacks") -- For three seasons, Einbinder as comedy writer Ava Daniels has been going toe-to-toe with powerhouse Jean Smart as bosslady Deborah Vance. No Emmy to take home yet, and this needs to end. In season 3, which reverses the power dynamic between Ava and Deborah, Einbinder delivers a comic and dramatic tour de force that takes your breath away. Make room on your shelf, Hannah, that Emmy is coming.
Outstanding limited or anthology series
SHOULD WIN: "Baby Reindeer" -- A stalker (Jessica Gunning) walks into a London pub and makes life hell for a bartender (Richard Gadd) who offers her tea and sympathy before running for his life. Emmy voters take note: This is one of the best and most audaciously original series of the year, carved out of Gadd's own experiences. There were times watching "Baby Reindeer" when I cringed so hard I wanted to cover my eyes. But I didn't. That's why I'm still shaking. For sheer commitment and inventiveness, you can't beat this one-of-a-kind spellbinder.
WILL WIN: "True Detective: Night Country" -- So why do I think the thundering impact of "Baby Reindeer" will lose to the fourth iteration of "True Detective" that for all its virtues (an Alaska-set mystery starring the great Jodie Foster) can't match its transformative first season? Because history proves that Emmy gets scared when a series breaks too many barriers and prefers the comforts of the familiar. I hope I'm wrong.
Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
SHOULD WIN: All five nominees in a tie because that's how good they are. Andrew Scott in "Ripley" and Jon Hamm in "Fargo" pushed themselves way out of their comfort zones by playing villains it was near impossible to root for.
WILL WIN: Richard Gadd ("Baby Reindeer") -- Watching this newcomer carve an unforgettable character out of a semi-fictionalized version of himself turns fascination into an obsession. Gadd is as hard on himself as he is on his predator. What kind of shame makes this wannabe stand-up comic incorporate his personal trauma as a glutton for verbal and physical abuse into a laugh routine? The answers are as chilling as they are illuminating. Gadd will rock you.
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie
SHOULD WIN: Jodie Foster ("True Detective: Night Country") -- A killer-good Foster enters in a whoosh of acid wit and bad attitude as Liz Danvers, her Alaska town's new chief of police. She's been assigned to this nowhereville as punishment for not following the rules. The same goes for Foster's acting, which is intuitive and indelible, as she digs hard into the broken places.
WILL WIN: Sofía Vergara ("Griselda") -- Like most award bodies, Emmy loves it when an actor breaks type and plays against perceived image. And Vergara, the comic Gloria on TV's "Modern Family," couldn't break the mold any harder than she does as Griselda Blanco, a real-life Colombian drug lord in the cocaine-based Miami drug trade. Vergara spent three hours a day in makeup to transform into Griselda. That alone is catnip for voters. She also happens to be very good in the series. But, the extra effort should put her over the top.
Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
SHOULD WIN: Jonathan Bailey ("Fellow Travelers") -- The British actor and "Bridgerton" heartthrob excels as Tim Laughlin, the congressional staffer whose forbidden romance with closeted State Department official Hawkins "Hawk" Fuller (Matt Bomer) extended from the so-called "Lavender Scare" of the 1950s to the AIDS crisis of the 1980s. It's a role the touched the heart of gay activist Bailey. And you feel his commitment in every scene.
WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr. ("The Sympathizer") -- Can the recent supporting Oscar winner (his first) for "Oppenheimer" pick up a supporting Emmy bookend for playing not one, but five villain roles in this series about spies and counterspies in Vietnam. What Downey Jr. is doing is less acting than shameless showing off. But the virtuoso fun he delivers is irresistible.
Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie
SHOULD WIN: Jessica Gunning ("Baby Reindeer") -- If a machine existed to measure the impact of an acting performance, Gunning would send the meter all the way to 11. Such is the startling effect of her tour de force as Martha, the frumpy, middle-aged lawyer who harasses the bartender played by Richard Gadd. Is he flattered by the attention of this woman with a prison stint for stalking, even when she dangerously confronts his parents and attacks his trans girlfriend (a superb Nava Mau)? Gunning finds all the complex answers while uncovering Martha's secret heart. Only Jamie Lee Curtis, who just won an Emmy early for outstanding guest actress in a comedy series as the mother from hell in "The Bear" could equal her.
WILL WIN: Jessica Gunning ("Baby Reindeer") -- No others need apply.
You can also check out the full list of nominations here.