Iran: New Middle East Power
Aug. 5, 2006— -- Heaving demonstrations in support of Hezbollah and against Israel have become daily events in Iran. Sometimes, the demonstrations turn violent.
On Friday, protesters attacked the British embassy. A group of young men participating in the demonstration volunteered to become suicide-bombers.
Hezbollah volunteer tents at the demonstration were mostly for show. The Iranian government is not letting any of its citizens go to Israel or Lebanon now. But Iranian military support for Hezbollah that concerns U.S. and Israeli officials, and some experts say that the United States needs to change the way it deals with Iran.
The U.S. refuses to engage in diplomacy with Iran, which the government says sponsors terrorism.
"Well, look at what Kissinger did in opening up China," said Vali Nasr, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, "Or what Reagan did with Gorbachev. That wasn't appeasement. That was engagement. He still called the Soviet Union an evil empire, but that didn't prevent him from engaging the Russians and trying to get somewhere with them diplomatically. So if there are changes I would recommend, I would say, engage."
A New Strategy?
Nasr believes that refusing to engage in diplomacy with Iran will damage the U.S. legacy in the Middle East.
"What's needed is new thinking," he said. "What Bush stood for was the belief that all you needed was a superior military and you could just remake political reality wherever you wanted, whenever you wanted.
"That belief is now completely defeated," he added. "You can't bully people when they aren't afraid of you. We've lost our political capital. We've lost our allies. We've lost the street. Now the only thing to do is stop digging an even bigger hole for ourselves."
U.S. and Israeli officials believe Iran has supplied Hezbollah with thousands of missiles, from the short-range Katyusha rockets to more sophisticated, long-range guided missiles like the one that disabled an Israeli warship, and others which might hit the heart of Israel, Tel Aviv.
Nasr, a member of a prominent Iranian exile family that traces its lineage back to the profit Muhammad, said Hezbollah receives a lot of support from Iran but is not completely at that nation's beck and call.
"Hezbollah got into this conflict for their own reasons, and these reasons happen to dovetail with Iran's aims in the region," said Nasr, the author of "The Shia Revival: How Conflict within Islam Will Shape the Future." "Hezbollah felt that Israel was going to invade Lebanon and come after them at some point anyway, so they wanted to precipitate the conflict on their own terms.
"Now they have the upper hand because they've shown that they can still launch missiles into Israel," he added. "Iran's hand in the Middle East is also stronger because Hezbollah's success makes it more difficult for the U.S. to isolate Iran and continue to ignore what they feel is their status as a great power in the region. So it's more complicated than just saying that one is completely the servant of the other."
Hezbollah's Arsenal
On Friday, Hezbollah launched its deepest rocket strikes into Israel to date, reaching the town of Hedera, located about 30 miles north of Tel Aviv. All told, there were nearly 200 rocket attacks on northern Israel Friday, including one half-hour barrage of 45 missiles that killed four Israeli citizens. Three of the dead were Arabs.
Hezbollah is believed to have missiles supplied by Iran that are capable of hitting Tel Aviv, and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to use them if Israel struck Beirut again.
Even after Israel hit Beirut on Thursday, Hezbollah did not immediately strike Tel Aviv -- an action that Israel said would take the war to a "new level."
Iranians told ABC News they their country has too many problems at home to worry about Hezbollah.
"We have a sick economy," one man said. "If we manage to cure it, it would be a miracle."
The official Iranian position is that Hezbollah doesn't need Iranian support. It can defeat Israel on its own. But Nasr says that the alliance between Israel and Iran shows a new power structure in the Middle East. More than ever, divisions are along sectarian lines, with Sunni states like Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia aligned with the U.S. On Friday, pro-Hezbollah demonstrations took place in Iraq, which has a large Shiite population and, according to Nasr, has long historical ties to Lebanon.
"The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is making life more difficult for them. It's Hezbollah and Iran who have made a play for the hearts and minds of the Arab street," Nasr said. "They're the ones flexing their muscles. At this point, Hezbollah and Iran -- the Shia crescent -- Have completely hijacked the Palestinian issue. They own it now. The Sunni states that have been the traditional powers in the region have been made to look weak and irrelevant. And the end result of this war, I think, will be to strengthen Iran and Hezbollah considerably."
ABC News' Jim Sciutto contributed to this report.