New Hampshire: Is It Make or Break for '08?

Jan. 5, 2008— -- This year, it seems as if the entire New Hampshire primary has been crammed into one long intense weekend.

Two days after the Iowa caucuses, candidates have moved on to New Hampshire, where primary voters will head to the polls Tuesday.

With three days to go, and an ABC News/Facebook/WMUR-TV debate tonight, candidates are working harder then ever to win over voters, particularly those fickle independents, in a state that has a history of making or breaking presidential runs.

At the moment, Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama seem to have the momentum. What happens in New Hampshire will determine whether they can keep it.

Republicans: Emphasize the Positive

On the Republican side Mike Huckabee is up, Mitt Romney is down but not out, Rudy Giuliani is back, Fred Thompson is missing and McCain appears to be surging.

McCain finished fourth in Iowa, but he may be the candidate with the most momentum in New Hampshire. He's been rising in the polls and drawing large crowds, but doesn't want be called "the comeback kid."

"I hate that phrase because it was used by somebody else some time ago. How about 'the Mac is back'? How about that?" he joked to reporters in New Hampshire.

Romney comes into New Hampshire reeling from his second-place finish in Iowa.

"I am looking for the win here. I need your help here," he told supporters at a diner on Friday.

The latest ABC News poll shows Romney and McCain in a virtual tie in New Hampshire, and the former Massachusetts governor has been hammering the Arizona senator with a steady stream of negative ads. One such ad says "He [McCain] even voted to allow illegal immigrants to collect social security."

McCain fired back. "Gov. Romney ran negative ads against my campaign, against Gov. Huckabee. It didn't work. I doubt it will work here in New Hampshire either, and I advise him to say some things that are positive."

In a state without the large evangelical Christian base that helped him win Iowa, Mike Huckabee's expectations are modest. His next real test is not New Hampshire, but South Carolina a week later.

"We're going to have to go convert a lot of people in New Hampshire in the next five days. A big tent revival out on the grounds of the Concord state capital," Huckabee told ABC News Political Correspondent Jake Tapper.

New Hampshire will be a critical state for both McCain and Romney. Whoever loses may not be able to recover. Giuliani, who spent very little time in Iowa, is also campaigning here, but the most recent ABC News poll in New Hampshire found the former New York City mayor third behind Romney and McCain.

Congressman Ron Paul, flush with funds raised on the Internet, is also here and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson arrives today, but it would be a surprise if either made much a splash on Tuesday.

Democrats: 'Status Quo Is Yesterday'

Among the Democrats, the momentum belongs to Barack Obama, who came out of Iowa like a freight train with his win. On his whistle-stop tour of New Hampshire, every event is a mob scene and his campaign for the presidency is fast becoming a cult of personality.

Obama not only advocates change, he claims to personify it. His new campaign ad states, "Only Obama can unify the country."

That's put Hillary Clinton in an awkward spot. If she attacks him, she risks seeming desperate.

"On a lot of these issues it is hard to know exactly where he stands, and people need to ask that," she told supporters at a coffee shop in New Hampshire yesterday.

Clinton and Obama now have overlapping messages as they try to stir up support.

"I'm fired up and I'm ready to go," Clinton cheered to a crowd in Davenport, Iowa, on Thursday.

"Are you fired up? Are you ready to go? Fired up! Ready to go!" Obama chanted to a younger crowd that rallied back in Greenfield, Iowa, in December.

Clinton is not the only candidate who is trying to steal back the limelight in one long weekend.

"The status quo is yesterday. And change is tomorrow. And tomorrow begins today, right here in New Hampshire," said John Edwards, who edged out Clinton forsecond place in Iowa.

Edwards insists he's no dark horse. His new slogan, perhaps the oddest of the campaign so far, compares himself to a thoroughbred racehorse. "We are Seabiscuit. I am the people's candidate," Edwards said in Manchester, N.H., today.